Chapecoense 1-0 Novorizontino — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 4 Oct 2025

📅04/10/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.33
Draw
27%
2.94
Away
31%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.56
Over 2.5
43%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.96
No
53%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2.34
2-3 Goals
38%
1.73
4-5 Goals
19%
4.62
6+ Goals
9%
26.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
12%
X/2
15%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
39%
+3.1pp
27%
Draw
30%
-3.8pp
31%
Away Win
31%
+0.6pp
57%
Under 2.5
60%
-3.4pp
43%
Over 2.5
40%
+3.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
+0.3pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
-0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chapecoense EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Novorizontino EU Bookmakers 34%
-6% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -4%
1.22/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.08
-5% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / +22%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
293 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 76%
18.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.8
22.6 Crosses 21.6
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chapecoense
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Novorizontino
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.05 xG 1.23
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
338 Passes 273
77% Pass Accuracy 74%
16 Box Touches 20
21 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
07.06.2025 Novorizontino Novorizontino 1-0 HT 0-0 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR2
02.11.2024 Chapecoense Chapecoense 0-2 HT 0-1 Novorizontino Novorizontino BR2
19.07.2024 Novorizontino Novorizontino 1-0 HT 1-0 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR2
20.08.2023 Novorizontino Novorizontino 1-2 HT 1-0 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR2
07.05.2023 Chapecoense Chapecoense 1-1 HT 1-1 Novorizontino Novorizontino BR2
11.08.2022 Chapecoense Chapecoense 2-2 HT 1-1 Novorizontino Novorizontino BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chapecoense
1-0
AWAY Novorizontino
1.76 xG 1.17
48% Ball Possession 52%
15 Total Shots 16
7 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 4
303 Passes 323
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
14 Box Touches 24
14 Crosses 19
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Chapecoense vs Novorizontino
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chapecoense squeezed past Novorizontino 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Chapecoense as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Chapecoense had 48% of the ball to Novorizontino's 52%, shots finished 15-16, expected goals 1.76 to 1.17.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Novorizontino led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Chapecoense and 1.33 for Novorizontino.

What was the final score of Chapecoense vs Novorizontino?

Chapecoense 1-0 Novorizontino in the Brazil - Serie B on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chapecoense vs Novorizontino?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chapecoense win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Chapecoense 42%, draw 27%, Novorizontino 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chapecoense), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Chapecoense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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