SalPa Salo 1-0 TPS Turku — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Ykkönen, 4 Oct 2025

📅04/10/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 0-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
9%
9.57
Draw
16%
5.71
Away
75%
1.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.89
Over 2.5
56%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.96
No
49%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
6.31
2-3 Goals EV+ ✗
51%
2.1
4-5 Goals
21%
2.4
6+ Goals
9%
4.76
Value flag · 2-3 Goals at 2.1 — our 51% vs market 39.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
4%
1/2
9%
1/X
4%
X/1
3%
X/2
20%
X/X
9%
2/1
2%
2/2
46%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
9%
Home Win
7%
+1.7pp
16%
Draw
14%
+2.0pp
75%
Away Win
79%
-3.7pp
44%
Under 2.5
31%
+13.0pp
56%
Over 2.5
69%
-13.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
47%
+4.1pp
49%
BTTS No
53%
-4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME SalPa Salo EU Bookmakers 10%
Head to Head
AWAY TPS Turku EU Bookmakers 84%
-13% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -29% / -29%
0.59/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.64
-42% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -50% / -34%
38% Ball Possession 62%
8 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 7
218 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 523 · 87%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME SalPa Salo
1W-1D-4L
AWAY TPS Turku
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
40% Ball Possession 60%
7 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 9
2 Corners 8
3 Yellow Cards 1
18.07.2025 TPS Turku TPS Turku 3-2 HT 2-0 SalPa Salo SalPa Salo FİN2
25.05.2025 SalPa Salo SalPa Salo 1-2 HT 0-1 TPS Turku TPS Turku FİN2
08.02.2025 TPS Turku TPS Turku 5-1 SalPa Salo SalPa Salo FINYK
10.08.2024 SalPa Salo SalPa Salo 0-0 HT 0-0 TPS Turku TPS Turku FİN2
13.07.2024 TPS Turku TPS Turku 2-3 HT 1-0 SalPa Salo SalPa Salo FİN2
12.05.2024 SalPa Salo SalPa Salo 0-1 HT 0-0 TPS Turku TPS Turku FİN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME SalPa Salo
1-0
AWAY TPS Turku
36% Ball Possession 64%
5 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 12
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH SalPa Salo vs TPS Turku
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

SalPa Salo squeezed past TPS Turku 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had TPS Turku at 75% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, SalPa Salo had 36% of the ball to TPS Turku's 64%, shots finished 5-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, TPS Turku led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for SalPa Salo and 2.17 for TPS Turku.

What was the final score of SalPa Salo vs TPS Turku?

SalPa Salo 1-0 TPS Turku in the Finland - Ykkönen on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for SalPa Salo vs TPS Turku?

Before kick-off our model rated an TPS Turku win the most likely single outcome at about 75%, with the full match-result split SalPa Salo 9%, draw 16%, TPS Turku 75%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (TPS Turku) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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