KTP Kotka 1-1 IFK Mariehamn — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 4 Oct 2025

📅04/10/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.53
Draw
18%
4.19
Away
29%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.51
Over 2.5
60%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.56
No
48%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
5.44
2-3 Goals
41%
2.04
4-5 Goals
27%
2.72
6+ Goals
14%
6.62
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.92
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
5%
15.15
X/1
17%
4.28
X/2
9%
11.0
X/X
8%
7.01
2/1
6%
18.85
2/2
13%
7.9
2/X
5%
16.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
61%
-7.5pp
18%
Draw
20%
-2.1pp
29%
Away Win
19%
+9.6pp
40%
Under 2.5
36%
+3.8pp
60%
Over 2.5
64%
-3.8pp
52%
BTTS Yes
60%
-8.0pp
48%
BTTS No
40%
+8.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME KTP Kotka EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY IFK Mariehamn EU Bookmakers 22%
-70% / -70% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +10%
1.00/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.51
-53% / -48% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +16%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
357 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.1
Crosses 15.0
Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME KTP Kotka
2W-2D-2L
AWAY IFK Mariehamn
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.70 xG 1.35
56% Ball Possession 44%
18 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 4
369 Passes 267
82% Pass Accuracy 75%
32 Box Touches 29
24 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.08.2025 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 3-0 HT 0-0 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka FİN
31.05.2025 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka 2-2 HT 0-1 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
22.02.2025 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 1-2 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka FLK
21.10.2023 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka 0-2 HT 0-2 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
01.07.2023 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 0-0 HT 0-0 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka FİN
22.04.2023 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka 2-1 HT 1-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME KTP Kotka
1-1
AWAY IFK Mariehamn
1.30 xG 0.60
45% Ball Possession 55%
15 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 0
403 Passes 557
81% Pass Accuracy 89%
32 Box Touches 15
24 Crosses 2
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH KTP Kotka vs IFK Mariehamn
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

KTP Kotka and IFK Mariehamn couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was KTP Kotka at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, KTP Kotka had 45% of the ball to IFK Mariehamn's 55%, shots finished 15-6, expected goals 1.30 to 0.60.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for KTP Kotka and 1.50 for IFK Mariehamn.

What was the final score of KTP Kotka vs IFK Mariehamn?

KTP Kotka 1-1 IFK Mariehamn in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for KTP Kotka vs IFK Mariehamn?

Before kick-off our model rated a KTP Kotka win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split KTP Kotka 53%, draw 18%, IFK Mariehamn 29%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (KTP Kotka), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (KTP Kotka) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
FİN More Finland - Veikkausliiga
4 Oct 2025
15:00 Oulu vs VPS Analysis →
17:00 SJK Seinajoki vs Ilves Tampere Analysis →