Ordabasy Shymkent 0-2 Tobol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kazakistan - Cup, 4 Oct 2025

📅04/10/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
3.08
Draw
21%
3.04
Away
40%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.67
Over 2.5
52%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.88
No
45%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
9%
X/2
15%
X/X
4%
2/1
3%
2/2
22%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
29%
+9.8pp
21%
Draw
30%
-8.8pp
40%
Away Win
41%
-1.0pp
48%
Under 2.5
56%
-8.4pp
52%
Over 2.5
44%
+8.4pp
55%
BTTS Yes
49%
+5.9pp
45%
BTTS No
51%
-5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ordabasy Shymkent EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Tobol EU Bookmakers 45%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +16%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +50% / +150%
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
244 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 372 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ordabasy Shymkent
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Tobol
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
2 Corners 11
24.09.2025 Tobol Tobol 1-0 HT 1-0 Ordabasy Shymkent Ordabasy Shymkent KAZP
17.08.2025 Ordabasy Shymkent Ordabasy Shymkent 2-3 HT 0-3 Tobol Tobol KAZP
19.10.2024 Tobol Tobol 1-0 Ordabasy Shymkent Ordabasy Shymkent KAZP
12.05.2024 Ordabasy Shymkent Ordabasy Shymkent 1-0 HT 1-0 Tobol Tobol KAZP
25.02.2024 Ordabasy Shymkent Ordabasy Shymkent 1-1 HT 1-0 Tobol Tobol KAZSK
04.11.2023 Ordabasy Shymkent Ordabasy Shymkent 0-1 HT 0-0 Tobol Tobol KAZKK
POST-MATCH Ordabasy Shymkent vs Tobol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tobol saw off Ordabasy Shymkent 2-0 away from home.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 21% / 40% — and on the day Tobol made the difference. The goals read — both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tobol led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Ordabasy Shymkent and 1.17 for Tobol.

What was the final score of Ordabasy Shymkent vs Tobol?

Ordabasy Shymkent 0-2 Tobol in the Kazakistan - Cup on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ordabasy Shymkent vs Tobol?

Before kick-off our model rated an Tobol win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Ordabasy Shymkent 39%, draw 21%, Tobol 40%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tobol) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Tobol) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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