Atlas 3-1 FC Juarez — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 4 Oct 2025

📅04/10/2025 · 🕒06:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.67
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
36%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.97
Over 2.5
53%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.63
No
40%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.47
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
26%
3.16
6+ Goals
11%
11.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
8%
X/2
16%
X/X
8%
2/1
11%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
34%
+6.0pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.4pp
36%
Away Win
39%
-3.7pp
47%
Under 2.5
47%
-0.2pp
53%
Over 2.5
53%
+0.2pp
60%
BTTS Yes
57%
+2.6pp
40%
BTTS No
43%
-2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atlas EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Juarez EU Bookmakers 43%
-4% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +27% / +27%
1.18/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.23
-17% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +32% / +53%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
294 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 345 · 81%
18.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.3
19.0 Crosses 19.0
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atlas
2W-3D-1L
AWAY FC Juarez
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.03 xG 1.14
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
311 Passes 306
80% Pass Accuracy 81%
17 Box Touches 21
17 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
06.04.2025 Atlas Atlas 1-1 HT 0-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
06.07.2024 FC Juarez FC Juarez 2-2 HT 1-0 Atlas Atlas MEK
29.01.2024 Atlas Atlas 2-1 HT 2-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
23.09.2023 FC Juarez FC Juarez 1-2 HT 0-1 Atlas Atlas MEK
10.04.2023 FC Juarez FC Juarez 1-1 HT 1-1 Atlas Atlas MEK
17.08.2022 Atlas Atlas 0-1 HT 0-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atlas
3-1
AWAY FC Juarez
1.22 xG 0.99
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 10
259 Passes 355
82% Pass Accuracy 87%
13 Box Touches 23
10 Crosses 34
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Atlas vs FC Juarez
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atlas beat FC Juarez 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

Our pre-match split (40% / 25% / 36%) promised a tight game; Atlas found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged both teams to score (60%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Atlas had 43% of the ball to FC Juarez's 57%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 1.22 to 0.99.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atlas had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Atlas and 1.17 for FC Juarez.

What was the final score of Atlas vs FC Juarez?

Atlas 3-1 FC Juarez in the Mexico - Primera on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atlas vs FC Juarez?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atlas win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Atlas 40%, draw 25%, FC Juarez 36%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atlas), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Atlas) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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