Necaxa 0-1 Pachuca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 4 Oct 2025

📅04/10/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.33
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
37%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.18
Over 2.5
52%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.53
No
45%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
4.14
2-3 Goals
39%
1.84
4-5 Goals
23%
2.83
6+ Goals
11%
8.22
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
19%
X/2
14%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
16%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
39%
-1.3pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.4pp
37%
Away Win
36%
+1.7pp
48%
Under 2.5
42%
+5.8pp
52%
Over 2.5
58%
-5.8pp
55%
BTTS Yes
61%
-6.2pp
45%
BTTS No
39%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Necaxa EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Pachuca EU Bookmakers 39%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +9%
1.16/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.33
-2% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -14%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
306 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 80%
18.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.9
20.2 Crosses 15.5
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Necaxa
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Pachuca
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
0.85 xG 2.32
38% Ball Possession 62%
11 Total Shots 19
5 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 6
195 Passes 361
67% Pass Accuracy 82%
14 Box Touches 28
15 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
12.04.2025 Necaxa Necaxa 3-5 HT 1-2 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
03.11.2024 Pachuca Pachuca 6-2 HT 2-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
06.05.2024 Pachuca Pachuca 2-1 HT 0-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
24.02.2024 Necaxa Necaxa 1-1 HT 1-0 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
01.10.2023 Pachuca Pachuca 1-1 HT 1-1 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
30.01.2023 Pachuca Pachuca 2-1 HT 1-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Necaxa
0-1
AWAY Pachuca
1.83 xG 0.80
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 4
301 Passes 215
78% Pass Accuracy 71%
26 Box Touches 22
26 Crosses 9
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Necaxa vs Pachuca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pachuca squeezed past Necaxa 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (38% / 25% / 37%) promised a tight game; Pachuca found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Necaxa had 57% of the ball to Pachuca's 43%, shots finished 15-15, expected goals 1.83 to 0.80 — on chances, Necaxa could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pachuca led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Necaxa and 2.83 for Pachuca.

What was the final score of Necaxa vs Pachuca?

Necaxa 0-1 Pachuca in the Mexico - Primera on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Necaxa vs Pachuca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Necaxa win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Necaxa 38%, draw 25%, Pachuca 37%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Necaxa) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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