Atlas 1-1 FC Juarez — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 6 Apr 2025

📅06/04/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.18
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
31%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.82
Over 2.5
52%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.73
No
50%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.1
2-3 Goals
38%
1.75
4-5 Goals
24%
3.5
6+ Goals
9%
14.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.1 — our 29% vs market 25.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
11%
X/X
10%
2/1
9%
2/2
15%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
42%
+1.1pp
25%
Draw
28%
-2.5pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+1.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
51%
-3.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
49%
+3.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.4pp
50%
BTTS No
46%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atlas EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Juarez EU Bookmakers 33%
-8% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -2%
1.27/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.66
-14% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -26%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
347 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 80%
21.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.5
21.9 Crosses 18.1
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atlas
3W-2D-1L
AWAY FC Juarez
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.01 xG 1.11
50% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
318 Passes 305
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 3
06.07.2024 FC Juarez FC Juarez 2-2 HT 1-0 Atlas Atlas MEK
29.01.2024 Atlas Atlas 2-1 HT 2-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
23.09.2023 FC Juarez FC Juarez 1-2 HT 0-1 Atlas Atlas MEK
10.04.2023 FC Juarez FC Juarez 1-1 HT 1-1 Atlas Atlas MEK
17.08.2022 Atlas Atlas 0-1 HT 0-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
12.03.2022 FC Juarez FC Juarez 1-2 HT 0-1 Atlas Atlas MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atlas
1-1
AWAY FC Juarez
0.82 xG 0.54
47% Ball Possession 53%
8 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 4
0 Corners 3
242 Passes 286
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
12 Box Touches 16
9 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Atlas vs FC Juarez
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atlas and FC Juarez shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Atlas at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Atlas had 47% of the ball to FC Juarez's 53%, shots finished 8-12, expected goals 0.82 to 0.54.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atlas had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Atlas and 1.17 for FC Juarez.

What was the final score of Atlas vs FC Juarez?

Atlas 1-1 FC Juarez in the Mexico - Primera on 06/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atlas vs FC Juarez?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atlas win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Atlas 44%, draw 25%, FC Juarez 31%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Atlas) ✗ Over 2.5
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