Atletico San Luis 2-1 Mazatlan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 6 Apr 2025

📅06/04/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.05
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
28%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.9
Over 2.5
44%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.7
No
54%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.23
2-3 Goals
39%
1.76
4-5 Goals
19%
3.38
6+ Goals
10%
12.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.23 — our 32% vs market 24.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
21%
X/2
13%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
45%
-2.6pp
30%
Draw
26%
+3.2pp
28%
Away Win
29%
-0.6pp
56%
Under 2.5
49%
+6.8pp
44%
Over 2.5
51%
-6.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
55%
-9.0pp
54%
BTTS No
45%
+9.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico San Luis EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Mazatlan EU Bookmakers 32%
-5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -15% / -15%
1.47/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.73/1.18
-5% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -61% / +20%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
311 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 74%
21.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
20.3 Crosses 21.8
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico San Luis
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Mazatlan
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.47 xG 2.24
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
339 Passes 336
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
19 Box Touches 23
15 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 3
13.07.2024 Mazatlan Mazatlan 2-2 HT 0-0 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis MEK
13.01.2024 Mazatlan Mazatlan 0-1 HT 0-0 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis MEK
23.09.2023 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis 3-2 HT 2-0 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
03.04.2023 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis 2-1 HT 1-0 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
23.07.2022 Mazatlan Mazatlan 1-1 HT 1-1 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis MEK
02.04.2022 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis 1-0 HT 0-0 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico San Luis
2-1
AWAY Mazatlan
1.58 xG 0.61
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
397 Passes 349
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
23 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Atletico San Luis vs Mazatlan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico San Luis edged past Mazatlan 2-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Atletico San Luis as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Atletico San Luis had 53% of the ball to Mazatlan's 47%, shots finished 14-7, expected goals 1.58 to 0.61.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico San Luis had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Atletico San Luis and 1.00 for Mazatlan.

What was the final score of Atletico San Luis vs Mazatlan?

Atletico San Luis 2-1 Mazatlan in the Mexico - Primera on 06/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico San Luis vs Mazatlan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico San Luis win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Atletico San Luis 42%, draw 30%, Mazatlan 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico San Luis) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atletico San Luis) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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