Novi Pazar 1-0 Mladost Lucani — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Serbia - Super League, 4 Oct 2025

📅04/10/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.9
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
29%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
57%
1.82
Over
43%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.76
No
52%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1
32%
2-3
42%
4-5
18%
6+
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
11%
X/X
13%
2/1
9%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 Home Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
48%
-4.6pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.3pp
30%
Away Win
25%
+4.3pp
57%
Under 2.5
51%
+5.4pp
43%
Over 2.5
49%
-5.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.4pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Novi Pazar EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Mladost Lucani EU Bookmakers 29%
-7% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +6%
1.29/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.48
-23% / +36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +14%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
280 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 259 · 70%
24.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.4
20.6 Crosses 16.3
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Novi Pazar
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Mladost Lucani
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.07 xG 1.70
52% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
345 Passes 313
79% Pass Accuracy 79%
21 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 3
28.04.2025 Mladost Lucani Mladost Lucani 1-1 HT 1-0 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar SIRP
20.12.2024 Mladost Lucani Mladost Lucani 1-3 HT 0-2 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar SIRP
17.08.2024 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar 0-1 HT 0-1 Mladost Lucani Mladost Lucani SIRP
03.03.2024 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar 0-0 HT 0-0 Mladost Lucani Mladost Lucani SIRP
23.09.2023 Mladost Lucani Mladost Lucani 2-0 HT 2-0 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar SIRP
31.03.2023 Mladost Lucani Mladost Lucani 1-3 HT 1-1 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar SIRP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Novi Pazar
1-0
AWAY Mladost Lucani
2.21 xG 1.63
55% Ball Possession 45%
20 Total Shots 8
10 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 1
362 Passes 281
82% Pass Accuracy 75%
23 Box Touches 13
25 Crosses 8
5 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Novi Pazar vs Mladost Lucani
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Novi Pazar nicked a narrow win over Mladost Lucani 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Novi Pazar as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Novi Pazar had 55% of the ball to Mladost Lucani's 45%, shots finished 20-8, expected goals 2.21 to 1.63.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Novi Pazar and 1.00 for Mladost Lucani.

What was the final score of Novi Pazar vs Mladost Lucani?

Novi Pazar 1-0 Mladost Lucani in the Serbia - Super League on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Novi Pazar vs Mladost Lucani?

Before kick-off our model rated a Novi Pazar win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Novi Pazar 44%, draw 27%, Mladost Lucani 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Novi Pazar), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Novi Pazar) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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