Benevento 2-1 Torre Neapolis — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 4 Nov 2024

📅04/11/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.29
Draw
24%
4.95
Away
16%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.0
Over 2.5
48%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.33
No
54%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.68
2-3 Goals
42%
1.81
4-5 Goals
23%
3.29
6+ Goals
10%
11.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.68 — our 25% vs market 21.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
6%
X/X
10%
2/1
9%
2/2
5%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
74%
-13.2pp
24%
Draw
18%
+6.2pp
16%
Away Win
9%
+7.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
46%
+5.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
54%
-5.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
39%
+7.4pp
54%
BTTS No
61%
-7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Benevento EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Torre Neapolis EU Bookmakers 11%
+3% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -1%
2.05/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.71/1.71
+14% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +0%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
348 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Benevento
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Torre Neapolis
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 2
06.01.2024 Benevento Benevento 3-2 HT 1-0 Torre Neapolis Torre Neapolis İTC
03.09.2023 Torre Neapolis Torre Neapolis 3-1 HT 2-1 Benevento Benevento İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Benevento
2-1
AWAY Torre Neapolis
55% Ball Possession 45%
19 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 6
POST-MATCH Benevento vs Torre Neapolis
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Benevento nicked a narrow win over Torre Neapolis 2-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Benevento as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Benevento had 55% of the ball to Torre Neapolis's 45%, shots finished 19-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Benevento and 2.50 for Torre Neapolis.

What was the final score of Benevento vs Torre Neapolis?

Benevento 2-1 Torre Neapolis in the Italy - Serie C on 04/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Benevento vs Torre Neapolis?

Before kick-off our model rated a Benevento win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Benevento 60%, draw 24%, Torre Neapolis 16%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Benevento) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Benevento) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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