AFC Hornchurch 1-1 Chesham United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 4 Nov 2025

📅04/11/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.75
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
25%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.9
Over 2.5
49%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.81
No
52%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.2
2-3 Goals
42%
1.75
4-5 Goals
23%
3.35
6+ Goals
7%
12.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.2 — our 28% vs market 24.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
15%
X/X
12%
2/1
4%
2/2
7%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
53%
-1.5pp
23%
Draw
25%
-1.9pp
25%
Away Win
22%
+3.3pp
51%
Under 2.5
49%
+2.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
51%
-2.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.8pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AFC Hornchurch EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Chesham United EU Bookmakers 25%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -7%
1.76/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.82/1.46
-2% / +39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / +10%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
314 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AFC Hornchurch
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Chesham United
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
0 Yellow Cards 1
22.02.2025 AFC Hornchurch AFC Hornchurch 2-1 HT 0-1 Chesham United Chesham United İCON
03.12.2024 Chesham United Chesham United 1-3 HT 1-1 AFC Hornchurch AFC Hornchurch İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AFC Hornchurch
1-1
AWAY Chesham United
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 8
POST-MATCH AFC Hornchurch vs Chesham United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AFC Hornchurch and Chesham United couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was AFC Hornchurch at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, AFC Hornchurch had 54% of the ball to Chesham United's 46%, shots finished 10-7.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, AFC Hornchurch had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for AFC Hornchurch and 1.00 for Chesham United.

What was the final score of AFC Hornchurch vs Chesham United?

AFC Hornchurch 1-1 Chesham United in the England - Conference on 04/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AFC Hornchurch vs Chesham United?

Before kick-off our model rated a AFC Hornchurch win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split AFC Hornchurch 52%, draw 23%, Chesham United 25%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (AFC Hornchurch), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (AFC Hornchurch) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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