Chorley 0-1 Alfreton Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 4 Nov 2025

📅04/11/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.66
Draw
20%
3.72
Away
20%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.0
Over 2.5
54%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.75
No
49%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.57
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
26%
3.1
6+ Goals
9%
10.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
19%
X/2
5%
X/X
7%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
56%
+3.9pp
20%
Draw
24%
-3.6pp
20%
Away Win
20%
-0.2pp
46%
Under 2.5
46%
-0.4pp
54%
Over 2.5
54%
+0.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.1pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chorley EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Alfreton Town EU Bookmakers 23%
+5% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -18%
2.06/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.71/1.72
+16% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -34% / -7%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
370 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chorley
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Alfreton Town
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 1
22.03.2025 Chorley Chorley 2-0 HT 2-0 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town İCON
19.10.2024 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town 1-0 Chorley Chorley İCON
30.01.2024 Chorley Chorley 3-2 HT 2-1 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town İCON
06.01.2024 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town 2-0 HT 1-0 Chorley Chorley İCON
14.01.2023 Chorley Chorley 0-0 HT 0-0 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town İCON
29.08.2022 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town 0-2 HT 0-0 Chorley Chorley İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chorley
0-1
AWAY Alfreton Town
55% Ball Possession 45%
4 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Chorley vs Alfreton Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alfreton Town edged past Chorley 1-0 away from home.

This one beat our numbers. Chorley carried 60% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Chorley had 55% of the ball to Alfreton Town's 45%, shots finished 4-6.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Chorley had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Chorley and 0.83 for Alfreton Town.

What was the final score of Chorley vs Alfreton Town?

Chorley 0-1 Alfreton Town in the England - Conference on 04/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chorley vs Alfreton Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chorley win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Chorley 60%, draw 20%, Alfreton Town 20%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Chorley) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İCON More England - Conference
4 Nov 2025
22:45 Kings Lynn Town vs Leamington Analysis →
22:45 Hemel Hempstead Town vs Weston-super-Mare Analysis →
22:45 Eastbourne Borough vs Dagenham & Redbridge Analysis →
22:45 AFC Hornchurch vs Chesham United Analysis →
22:45 Chippenham Town vs Salisbury Analysis →
22:45 Dorking Wanderers vs Enfield Town Analysis →