Chorley vs Alfreton Town Prediction — Model Probabilities
Chorley v Alfreton Town — Team-Based Signals
Chorley vs Alfreton Town Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Chorley 0-1 Alfreton Town — Actual Match Statistics
Alfreton Town found just enough to beat Chorley 1-0 on the road.
This one beat our numbers. Chorley carried 60% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.
No strong lean on goals — the model had over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 53%, coin-flips both.
Under the surface, possession split 55% to 45% in Chorley's favour, shots finished 4-6.
The head-to-head backdrop: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Chorley had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.17 a game for Chorley against 0.83 for Alfreton Town.
Chorley vs Alfreton Town Result & Final Score
Chorley 0 - 1 Alfreton Town in the England - Conference on 04/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Chorley vs Alfreton Town Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Chorley win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Chorley 60%, draw 22%, Alfreton Town 18%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.