Alfreton Town 1-0 Chorley — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 19 Oct 2024

📅19/10/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.25
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
31%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.68
Over 2.5
41%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.85
No
56%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
32%
2.8
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.18
6+ Goals
8%
20.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.8 — our 32% vs market 29.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
9%
X/X
16%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
41%
-0.5pp
29%
Draw
28%
+0.5pp
31%
Away Win
31%
+0.0pp
59%
Under 2.5
56%
+3.8pp
41%
Over 2.5
44%
-3.8pp
44%
BTTS Yes
50%
-6.2pp
56%
BTTS No
50%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alfreton Town EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Chorley EU Bookmakers 34%
+2% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -15%
1.50/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.47
+7% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -6%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
338 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alfreton Town
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Chorley
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
51% Ball Possession 49%
8 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 1
30.01.2024 Chorley Chorley 3-2 HT 2-1 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town İCON
06.01.2024 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town 2-0 HT 1-0 Chorley Chorley İCON
14.01.2023 Chorley Chorley 0-0 HT 0-0 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town İCON
29.08.2022 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town 0-2 HT 0-0 Chorley Chorley İCON
15.04.2022 Chorley Chorley 1-2 HT 1-0 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town İCON
30.08.2021 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town 0-1 HT 0-0 Chorley Chorley İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alfreton Town
1-0
AWAY Chorley
50% Ball Possession 50%
7 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
POST-MATCH Alfreton Town vs Chorley
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alfreton Town squeezed past Chorley 1-0.

Our pre-match split (40% / 29% / 31%) promised a tight game; Alfreton Town found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Alfreton Town had 50% of the ball to Chorley's 50%, shots finished 7-6.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Chorley led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Alfreton Town and 1.17 for Chorley.

What was the final score of Alfreton Town vs Chorley?

Alfreton Town 1-0 Chorley in the England - Conference on 19/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alfreton Town vs Chorley?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alfreton Town win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Alfreton Town 40%, draw 29%, Chorley 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Alfreton Town), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Alfreton Town) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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