Scarborough Athletic 1-2 Southport — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 19 Oct 2024

📅19/10/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.8
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
24%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.82
Over 2.5
46%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.82
No
54%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.21
2-3 Goals
45%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
3.67
6+ Goals
8%
15.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.21 — our 28% vs market 25.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
16%
X/2
9%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
52%
-3.9pp
28%
Draw
25%
+3.1pp
24%
Away Win
24%
+0.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
51%
+2.5pp
46%
Over 2.5
49%
-2.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.2pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Scarborough Athletic EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Southport EU Bookmakers 27%
+1% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +1%
1.85/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.86
+12% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -20%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
354 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Scarborough Athletic
0W-1D-3L
AWAY Southport
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
20.02.2024 Scarborough Athletic Scarborough Athletic 0-1 HT 0-0 Southport Southport İCON
05.09.2023 Southport Southport 3-1 HT 2-0 Scarborough Athletic Scarborough Athletic İCON
25.03.2023 Scarborough Athletic Scarborough Athletic 0-1 HT 0-0 Southport Southport İCON
03.12.2022 Southport Southport 1-1 HT 0-1 Scarborough Athletic Scarborough Athletic İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Scarborough Athletic
1-2
AWAY Southport
60% Ball Possession 40%
13 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
POST-MATCH Scarborough Athletic vs Southport
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Southport edged past Scarborough Athletic 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Scarborough Athletic at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Scarborough Athletic had 60% of the ball to Southport's 40%, shots finished 13-6.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Southport led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Scarborough Athletic and 1.50 for Southport.

What was the final score of Scarborough Athletic vs Southport?

Scarborough Athletic 1-2 Southport in the England - Conference on 19/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Scarborough Athletic vs Southport?

Before kick-off our model rated a Scarborough Athletic win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Scarborough Athletic 48%, draw 28%, Southport 24%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Scarborough Athletic) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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