Chorley 2-0 Alfreton Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 22 Mar 2025

📅22/03/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.96
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
31%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.75
Over 2.5
48%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.85
No
51%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
2.78
2-3 Goals
41%
1.72
4-5 Goals
21%
3.76
6+ Goals
8%
16.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.78 — our 30% vs market 28.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
8%
1/X
5%
X/1
10%
X/2
13%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
11%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
47%
-3.6pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.2pp
31%
Away Win
26%
+4.8pp
52%
Under 2.5
53%
-1.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
47%
+1.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
50%
-0.7pp
51%
BTTS No
50%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chorley EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Alfreton Town EU Bookmakers 30%
+5% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.58/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.47
+6% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +0%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
356 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chorley
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Alfreton Town
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
19.10.2024 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town 1-0 Chorley Chorley İCON
30.01.2024 Chorley Chorley 3-2 HT 2-1 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town İCON
06.01.2024 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town 2-0 HT 1-0 Chorley Chorley İCON
14.01.2023 Chorley Chorley 0-0 HT 0-0 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town İCON
29.08.2022 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town 0-2 HT 0-0 Chorley Chorley İCON
15.04.2022 Chorley Chorley 1-2 HT 1-0 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chorley
2-0
AWAY Alfreton Town
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Chorley vs Alfreton Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chorley beat Alfreton Town 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Chorley as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Chorley had 43% of the ball to Alfreton Town's 57%, shots finished 9-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Alfreton Town led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Chorley and 1.17 for Alfreton Town.

What was the final score of Chorley vs Alfreton Town?

Chorley 2-0 Alfreton Town in the England - Conference on 22/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chorley vs Alfreton Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chorley win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Chorley 44%, draw 25%, Alfreton Town 31%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chorley), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Chorley) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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