Hemel Hempstead Town 1-1 Aveley — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 22 Mar 2025

📅22/03/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.61
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
22%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.0
Over 2.5
50%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.76
No
51%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.55
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
24%
3.07
6+ Goals
10%
10.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.55 — our 28% vs market 21.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
7%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
58%
-4.8pp
25%
Draw
23%
+1.2pp
22%
Away Win
18%
+3.5pp
50%
Under 2.5
46%
+3.7pp
50%
Over 2.5
54%
-3.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.4pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hemel Hempstead Town EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Aveley EU Bookmakers 21%
-17% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -17% / -33%
1.39/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/2.15
-24% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / -26%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
382 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hemel Hempstead Town
1W-0D-3L
AWAY Aveley
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.11.2024 Aveley Aveley 2-1 HT 0-0 Hemel Hempstead Town Hemel Hempstead Town İNFAT
19.08.2024 Aveley Aveley 0-1 HT 0-1 Hemel Hempstead Town Hemel Hempstead Town İCON
29.03.2024 Hemel Hempstead Town Hemel Hempstead Town 3-4 HT 2-1 Aveley Aveley İCON
06.11.2023 Aveley Aveley 2-1 HT 0-0 Hemel Hempstead Town Hemel Hempstead Town İCON
POST-MATCH Hemel Hempstead Town vs Aveley
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hemel Hempstead Town and Aveley shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Hemel Hempstead Town at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Aveley led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Hemel Hempstead Town and 2.00 for Aveley.

What was the final score of Hemel Hempstead Town vs Aveley?

Hemel Hempstead Town 1-1 Aveley in the England - Conference on 22/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hemel Hempstead Town vs Aveley?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hemel Hempstead Town win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Hemel Hempstead Town 54%, draw 25%, Aveley 22%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Hemel Hempstead Town) ✗ BTTS No
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