Buxton vs Southport Prediction — Model Probabilities
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Buxton v Southport — Team-Based Signals
Buxton vs Southport Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Buxton 1-2 Southport — Actual Match Statistics
Southport squeezed past Buxton 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.
By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Buxton at 57% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.
On the day, Buxton had 54% of the ball to Southport's 46%, shots finished 8-9.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Buxton had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Buxton and 1.33 for Southport.
What was the final score of Buxton vs Southport?
Buxton 1-2 Southport in the England - Conference on 04/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Buxton vs Southport?
Before kick-off our model rated a Buxton win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Buxton 57%, draw 25%, Southport 19%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Buxton) went the other way.