Aurora 2-3 Independiente Petrolero — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bolivia - LFPB Küme Düşme, 4 Nov 2025

📅04/11/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.64
Draw
20%
3.94
Away
20%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.29
Over 2.5
61%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.56
No
42%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
18%
X/2
8%
X/X
8%
2/1
13%
2/2
7%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
57%
+3.5pp
19%
Draw
22%
-2.8pp
20%
Away Win
21%
-0.7pp
39%
Under 2.5
40%
-0.7pp
61%
Over 2.5
60%
+0.7pp
58%
BTTS Yes
60%
-2.3pp
42%
BTTS No
40%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aurora EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Independiente Petrolero EU Bookmakers 24%
-8% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +26%
1.99/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.54
+12% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +38% / +1%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
306 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 221 · 70%
30.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.3
26.9 Crosses 15.1
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aurora
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Independiente Petrolero
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
2.01 xG 0.94
52% Ball Possession 49%
17 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
273 Passes 245
76% Pass Accuracy 73%
29 Box Touches 15
23 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.05.2025 Independiente Petrolero Independiente Petrolero 2-4 HT 0-2 Aurora Aurora BOLİ
01.11.2024 Aurora Aurora 2-0 HT 0-0 Independiente Petrolero Independiente Petrolero BOLİ
21.07.2024 Independiente Petrolero Independiente Petrolero 2-1 HT 0-0 Aurora Aurora BOLİ
19.04.2024 Aurora Aurora 2-3 HT 1-1 Independiente Petrolero Independiente Petrolero BOLİ
06.08.2023 Independiente Petrolero Independiente Petrolero 1-1 HT 0-0 Aurora Aurora BOLİ
05.03.2023 Aurora Aurora 2-0 HT 1-0 Independiente Petrolero Independiente Petrolero BOLİ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aurora
2-3
AWAY Independiente Petrolero
0.65 xG 0.44
44% Ball Possession 56%
18 Total Shots 13
11 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 1
280 Passes 379
83% Pass Accuracy 85%
31 Box Touches 16
17 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Aurora vs Independiente Petrolero
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente Petrolero edged past Aurora 3-2 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Aurora at 60% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, Aurora had 44% of the ball to Independiente Petrolero's 56%, shots finished 18-13, expected goals 0.65 to 0.44.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aurora had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Aurora and 1.33 for Independiente Petrolero.

What was the final score of Aurora vs Independiente Petrolero?

Aurora 2-3 Independiente Petrolero in the Bolivia - LFPB Küme Düşme on 04/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aurora vs Independiente Petrolero?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aurora win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Aurora 60%, draw 19%, Independiente Petrolero 20%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Aurora) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Aurora) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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