PFC Beroe 5-1 Botev Vratsa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 4 Dec 2024

📅04/12/2024 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.61
Draw
31%
3.45
Away
18%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.51
Over 2.5
35%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.44
No
56%
1.49
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
48%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
19%
X/2
8%
X/X
18%
2/1
4%
2/2
5%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
58%
-7.5pp
32%
Draw
26%
+5.7pp
18%
Away Win
16%
+1.8pp
65%
Under 2.5
62%
+2.6pp
35%
Over 2.5
38%
-2.6pp
44%
BTTS Yes
37%
+6.6pp
56%
BTTS No
63%
-6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PFC Beroe EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Botev Vratsa EU Bookmakers 19%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -7%
1.48/0.61 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.38/1.69
-16% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -54% / -12%
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
402 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 275 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PFC Beroe
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Botev Vratsa
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
49% Ball Possession 51%
8 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 3
05.08.2024 Botev Vratsa Botev Vratsa 1-2 HT 1-1 PFC Beroe PFC Beroe BUL1
25.05.2024 Botev Vratsa Botev Vratsa 1-0 HT 1-0 PFC Beroe PFC Beroe BUL1
15.03.2024 PFC Beroe PFC Beroe 2-2 HT 1-0 Botev Vratsa Botev Vratsa BUL1
22.09.2023 Botev Vratsa Botev Vratsa 1-0 HT 0-0 PFC Beroe PFC Beroe BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PFC Beroe
5-1
AWAY Botev Vratsa
66% Ball Possession 34%
23 Total Shots 11
9 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH PFC Beroe vs Botev Vratsa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PFC Beroe cruised past Botev Vratsa 5-1. Half-time: 2-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had PFC Beroe as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, PFC Beroe had 66% of the ball to Botev Vratsa's 34%, shots finished 23-11.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Botev Vratsa led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for PFC Beroe and 1.25 for Botev Vratsa.

What was the final score of PFC Beroe vs Botev Vratsa?

PFC Beroe 5-1 Botev Vratsa in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 04/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PFC Beroe vs Botev Vratsa?

Before kick-off our model rated a PFC Beroe win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split PFC Beroe 51%, draw 32%, Botev Vratsa 18%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (PFC Beroe) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (PFC Beroe) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BUL1 More Bulgaria - 1st Division
4 Dec 2024
16:00 Arda Kardzhali vs Ludogorets Razgrad Analysis →
18:30 Levski Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv Analysis →