Real Avila 1-2 Rayo Vallecano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Copa del Rey, 4 Dec 2025

📅04/12/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
12%
5.91
Draw
20%
4.34
Away
68%
1.41
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.0
Over 2.5
55%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.99
No
42%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
5%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
4%
X/2
12%
X/X
5%
2/1
3%
2/2
50%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
12%
Home Win
14%
-1.5pp
20%
Draw
20%
+0.6pp
67%
Away Win
66%
+1.0pp
45%
Under 2.5
46%
-1.4pp
55%
Over 2.5
54%
+1.4pp
58%
BTTS Yes
46%
+12.0pp
42%
BTTS No
54%
-12.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Real Avila EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Rayo Vallecano EU Bookmakers 71%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
1.52/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.32/0.70
+4% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +36% / +15%
40% Ball Possession 60%
8 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
237 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 407 · 82%
15.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 33.7
13.1 Crosses 24.4
5.0 Yellow Cards 0.9
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Real Avila
1-2
AWAY Rayo Vallecano
1.17 xG 1.32
24% Ball Possession 76%
18 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 11
152 Passes 671
62% Pass Accuracy 87%
28 Box Touches 29
13 Crosses 49
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Real Avila vs Rayo Vallecano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rayo Vallecano squeezed past Real Avila 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Rayo Vallecano as the likeliest winner at 67%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, Real Avila had 24% of the ball to Rayo Vallecano's 76%, shots finished 18-14, expected goals 1.17 to 1.32.

What was the final score of Real Avila vs Rayo Vallecano?

Real Avila 1-2 Rayo Vallecano in the Spain - Copa del Rey on 04/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Real Avila vs Rayo Vallecano?

Before kick-off our model rated an Rayo Vallecano win the most likely single outcome at about 67%, with the full match-result split Real Avila 12%, draw 20%, Rayo Vallecano 67%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rayo Vallecano), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Rayo Vallecano) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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