Araz Nahçıvan 0-1 Kapaz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Cup, 4 Dec 2025

📅04/12/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
68%
1.57
Draw
19%
3.94
Away
13%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
33%
2.07
Over 2.5
67%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.76
No
47%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
45%
1/2
3%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
7%
X/X
7%
2/1
9%
2/2
3%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
68%
Home Win
60%
+8.7pp
19%
Draw
22%
-3.7pp
13%
Away Win
18%
-5.1pp
33%
Under 2.5
44%
-11.7pp
67%
Over 2.5
56%
+11.7pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
+0.5pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
-0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Araz Nahçıvan EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Kapaz EU Bookmakers 21%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +19% / +19%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / -29%
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
399 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Araz Nahçıvan
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Kapaz
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
12.09.2025 Kapaz Kapaz 0-2 HT 0-0 Araz Nahçıvan Araz Nahçıvan AZERS
13.04.2025 Kapaz Kapaz 0-0 HT 0-0 Araz Nahçıvan Araz Nahçıvan AZERS
10.02.2025 Araz Nahçıvan Araz Nahçıvan 0-0 HT 0-0 Kapaz Kapaz AZERS
22.11.2024 Kapaz Kapaz 0-2 HT 0-1 Araz Nahçıvan Araz Nahçıvan AZERS
13.09.2024 Araz Nahçıvan Araz Nahçıvan 1-0 HT 0-0 Kapaz Kapaz AZERS
05.04.2024 Araz Nahçıvan Araz Nahçıvan 1-2 HT 1-0 Kapaz Kapaz AZERS
POST-MATCH Araz Nahçıvan vs Kapaz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kapaz squeezed past Araz Nahçıvan 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Araz Nahçıvan at 68% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (67%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Araz Nahçıvan had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Araz Nahçıvan and 0.33 for Kapaz.

What was the final score of Araz Nahçıvan vs Kapaz?

Araz Nahçıvan 0-1 Kapaz in the Azerbaijan - Cup on 04/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Araz Nahçıvan vs Kapaz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Araz Nahçıvan win the most likely single outcome at about 68%, with the full match-result split Araz Nahçıvan 68%, draw 19%, Kapaz 13%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Araz Nahçıvan) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AZERK More Azerbaijan - Cup
4 Dec 2025
14:00 Qabala vs Safa Analysis →
18:00 Difai vs Sumqayıt Analysis →