Midtjylland 5-1 FC Nordsjaelland — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - DBU Cup, 4 Dec 2025

📅04/12/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.49
Draw
19%
4.19
Away
24%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.51
Over 2.5
61%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.63
No
42%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
5.18
2-3 Goals
38%
1.98
4-5 Goals
29%
2.66
6+ Goals
13%
6.51
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1.82
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
6%
15.7
X/1
21%
4.25
X/2
8%
12.4
X/X
6%
7.14
2/1 EV+ ✗
13%
19.45
2/2
11%
9.16
2/X
7%
17.6
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.45 — our 13% vs market 2.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
62%
-5.8pp
19%
Draw
20%
-1.5pp
25%
Away Win
17%
+7.4pp
39%
Under 2.5
36%
+2.4pp
61%
Over 2.5
64%
-2.4pp
58%
BTTS Yes
57%
+1.0pp
42%
BTTS No
43%
-1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Midtjylland EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Nordsjaelland EU Bookmakers 21%
+22% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -22% / -22%
2.67/0.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.62/3.04
+42% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +111% / -51%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
397 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 78%
35.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 36.0
24.9 Crosses 11.0
0.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Midtjylland
3W-1D-2L
AWAY FC Nordsjaelland
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.71 xG 1.57
44% Ball Possession 56%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
372 Passes 490
84% Pass Accuracy 86%
34 Box Touches 28
19 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 1
30.11.2025 Midtjylland Midtjylland 6-0 HT 4-0 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland DAN
14.09.2025 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland 1-0 HT 1-0 Midtjylland Midtjylland DAN
27.04.2025 Midtjylland Midtjylland 5-0 HT 4-0 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland DAN
22.04.2025 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland 3-2 HT 1-1 Midtjylland Midtjylland DAN
02.03.2025 Midtjylland Midtjylland 2-1 HT 0-0 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland DAN
27.07.2024 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland 2-2 HT 2-2 Midtjylland Midtjylland DAN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Midtjylland
5-1
AWAY FC Nordsjaelland
3.71 xG 0.38
66% Ball Possession 34%
17 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 0
524 Passes 235
89% Pass Accuracy 76%
38 Box Touches 6
26 Crosses 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Midtjylland vs FC Nordsjaelland
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Midtjylland ran out comfortable winners over FC Nordsjaelland 5-1. Half-time: 3-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Midtjylland as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Midtjylland had 66% of the ball to FC Nordsjaelland's 34%, shots finished 17-5, expected goals 3.71 to 0.38.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Midtjylland had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for Midtjylland and 1.17 for FC Nordsjaelland.

What was the final score of Midtjylland vs FC Nordsjaelland?

Midtjylland 5-1 FC Nordsjaelland in the Denmark - DBU Cup on 04/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Midtjylland vs FC Nordsjaelland?

Before kick-off our model rated a Midtjylland win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Midtjylland 57%, draw 19%, FC Nordsjaelland 25%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Midtjylland), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Midtjylland) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →