Porto 1-3 Vitoria Guimaraes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - League Cup, 4 Dec 2025

Porto
1-3 HT 1-1
Vitoria Guimaraes
📅04/12/2025 · 🕒23:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Portugal - League Cup – 2025/2026

Porto vs Vitoria Guimaraes Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
66%
1.53
Draw
18%
3.8
Away
16%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under
41%
1.86
Over
59%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.97
No
51%
1.74
Total Goals
0-1
22%
3.13
2-3
40%
1.75
4-5
27%
3.47
6+
11%
13.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
3%
1/X
4%
X/1
23%
X/2
5%
X/X
9%
2/1
11%
2/2
8%
2/X
5%
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.

Porto v Vitoria Guimaraes — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Porto The Market 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes The Market 19%
+17% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
1.56/0.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.56/2.39
-17% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / +24%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
313 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 74%
35.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.0
17.0 Crosses 15.0
1.0 Yellow Cards 4.8

Porto vs Vitoria Guimaraes Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Porto
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.63 xG 0.80
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 4
366 Passes 261
83% Pass Accuracy 78%
28 Box Touches 13
20 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
11.08.2025 Porto Porto 3-0 HT 2-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
24.02.2025 Porto Porto 1-1 HT 0-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
21.09.2024 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 0-3 HT 0-0 Porto Porto POR
17.04.2024 Porto Porto 3-1 HT 2-1 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POK
07.04.2024 Porto Porto 1-2 HT 1-2 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
03.04.2024 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 0-1 HT 0-0 Porto Porto POK

Porto 1-3 Vitoria Guimaraes — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Porto
1-3
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
1.20 xG 2.23
62% Ball Possession 38%
22 Total Shots 5
3 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
403 Passes 217
88% Pass Accuracy 79%
19 Box Touches 8
23 Crosses 13
7 Yellow Cards 5
REVIEW Porto vs Vitoria Guimaraes
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Vitoria Guimaraes beat Porto 3-1 away from home. Level at 1-1 at half-time, the winner was decided in the second half.

This one beat our numbers. Porto carried 66% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. Nothing to argue with on goals either — over 2.5 goals (59%) came home.

Under the surface, possession split 62% to 38% in Porto's favour, shots finished 22-5, expected goals 1.20 to 2.23.

The head-to-head backdrop: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Porto had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 2.00 a game for Porto against 0.67 for Vitoria Guimaraes.

Porto vs Vitoria Guimaraes Result & Final Score

Porto 1-3 Vitoria Guimaraes in the Portugal - League Cup on 04/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Porto vs Vitoria Guimaraes Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Porto win the most likely single outcome at about 66%, with the full match-result split Porto 66%, draw 18%, Vitoria Guimaraes 16%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Porto), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Porto) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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