Milan 3-1 Roma — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Cup, 5 Feb 2025

Milan
3-1 HT 2-0
Roma
📅05/02/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Italy - Cup – 2024/2025

Milan vs Roma Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.0
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
27%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under
56%
1.82
Over
44%
1.89
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.72
No Pick
57%
2.0
Total Goals
0-1 ✗
32%
3.18
2-3
38%
1.76
4-5
21%
3.46
6+
9%
13.6
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.18 — our 32% vs market 25.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.77
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
12.3
X/1
13%
4.85
X/2
14%
7.59
X/X
13%
4.48
2/1
7%
25.0
2/2
7%
5.6
2/X
8%
13.2
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to ✓ / ✗. Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.

Milan v Roma — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Milan The Market 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Roma The Market 29%
Bad Season vs Marketall history · vs bookmaker expectation Weak
Bad Recent Form vs Marketlatest matches · vs bookmaker expectation Weak
1.34 Expected Goals Scoredper match · higher is better 0.37
1.15 Expected Goals Concededper match · lower is better 1.59
Weak Attackvs comparable teams Bad
Average Defensevs comparable teams Average
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
394 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 329 · 78%
28.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
24.3 Crosses –
1.2 Yellow Cards –

Milan vs Roma Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Milan
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Roma
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.48 xG 1.14
52% Ball Possession 48%
19 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
432 Passes 394
89% Pass Accuracy 86%
32 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
29.12.2024 Milan Milan 1-1 HT 1-1 Roma Roma İTA
31.05.2024 Roma Roma 5-2 HT 2-1 Milan Milan HAZ
18.04.2024 Roma Roma 2-1 HT 2-0 Milan Milan AVL
11.04.2024 Milan Milan 0-1 HT 0-1 Roma Roma AVL
14.01.2024 Milan Milan 3-1 HT 1-0 Roma Roma İTA
01.09.2023 Roma Roma 1-2 HT 0-1 Milan Milan İTA

Milan 3-1 Roma — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Milan
3-1
AWAY Roma
2.04 xG 1.75
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 19
6 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 8
435 Passes 419
89% Pass Accuracy 89%
33 Box Touches 26
17 Crosses 22
0 Yellow Cards 1
REVIEW Milan vs Roma
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Milan had too much for Roma 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

The way our numbers pointed is the way it went: our model had Milan as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The one blemish: under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (57%) never looked like landing.

By the numbers, Milan had 51% of the ball to Roma's 49%, shots finished 13-19, expected goals 2.04 to 1.75.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Roma led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Milan and 1.83 for Roma.

Milan vs Roma Result & Final Score

Milan 3-1 Roma in the Italy - Cup on 05/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Milan vs Roma Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Milan win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Milan 46%, draw 27%, Roma 27%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Milan) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Milan) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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