Shamakhi 2-1 Karabağ — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Cup, 5 Feb 2026

📅05/02/2026 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
13%
5.34
Draw
20%
3.94
Away
67%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.9
Over 2.5
52%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.95
No
58%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
4%
1/2
7%
1/X
4%
X/1
6%
X/2
20%
X/X
10%
2/1
4%
2/2
40%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
13%
Home Win
16%
-2.7pp
20%
Draw
22%
-2.8pp
67%
Away Win
62%
+5.5pp
48%
Under 2.5
49%
-0.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
51%
+0.5pp
42%
BTTS Yes
47%
-4.8pp
58%
BTTS No
53%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shamakhi EU Bookmakers 19%
Head to Head
AWAY Karabağ EU Bookmakers 66%
-26% / -26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -8%
0.00/6.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.38/0.59
-100% / -65% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +47% / +150%
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
303 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 384 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Shamakhi
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Karabağ
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
37% Ball Possession 63%
1 Total Shots 13
1 Shots on Target 7
1 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 2
26.10.2025 Karabağ Karabağ 0-0 HT 0-0 Shamakhi Shamakhi AZERS
17.01.2025 Karabağ Karabağ 3-2 HT 2-2 Shamakhi Shamakhi AZERS
19.12.2024 Shamakhi Shamakhi 0-1 HT 0-0 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
27.10.2024 Karabağ Karabağ 3-0 HT 0-0 Shamakhi Shamakhi AZERS
02.04.2023 Shamakhi Shamakhi 0-1 HT 0-1 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
31.01.2023 Karabağ Karabağ 3-1 HT 1-0 Shamakhi Shamakhi AZERS
POST-MATCH Shamakhi vs Karabağ
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shamakhi squeezed past Karabağ 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Karabağ at 67% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Karabağ led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Shamakhi and 1.83 for Karabağ.

What was the final score of Shamakhi vs Karabağ?

Shamakhi 2-1 Karabağ in the Azerbaijan - Cup on 05/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shamakhi vs Karabağ?

Before kick-off our model rated an Karabağ win the most likely single outcome at about 67%, with the full match-result split Shamakhi 13%, draw 20%, Karabağ 67%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Karabağ), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Karabağ) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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