Turan Tovuz 1-0 Kapaz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Cup, 5 Feb 2026

📅05/02/2026 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.66
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
22%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.78
Over 2.5
52%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.95
No
54%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
6%
X/X
12%
2/1
9%
2/2
11%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
56%
-0.5pp
23%
Draw
25%
-1.9pp
22%
Away Win
20%
+2.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
52%
-4.1pp
52%
Over 2.5
48%
+4.1pp
46%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.0pp
54%
BTTS No
53%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Turan Tovuz EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Kapaz EU Bookmakers 23%
-19% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +19% / +19%
2.00/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.00/2.00
+31% / -57% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / -26%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
316 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Turan Tovuz
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Kapaz
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
19.12.2025 Kapaz Kapaz 0-2 HT 0-1 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz AZERS
28.09.2025 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz 3-0 HT 2-0 Kapaz Kapaz AZERS
19.01.2025 Kapaz Kapaz 5-2 HT 2-2 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz AZERS
25.10.2024 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz 2-1 HT 1-0 Kapaz Kapaz AZERS
17.08.2024 Kapaz Kapaz 0-3 HT 0-2 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz AZERS
22.01.2024 Kapaz Kapaz 2-1 HT 1-1 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz AZERS
POST-MATCH Turan Tovuz vs Kapaz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Turan Tovuz edged past Kapaz 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Turan Tovuz as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Turan Tovuz had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Turan Tovuz and 1.33 for Kapaz.

What was the final score of Turan Tovuz vs Kapaz?

Turan Tovuz 1-0 Kapaz in the Azerbaijan - Cup on 05/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Turan Tovuz vs Kapaz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Turan Tovuz win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Turan Tovuz 55%, draw 23%, Kapaz 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Turan Tovuz), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Turan Tovuz) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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