Turan Tovuz 3-0 Kapaz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 28 Sep 2025

📅28/09/2025 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
63%
1.43
Draw
26%
3.94
Away
11%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.71
Over 2.5
47%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
2.33
No
48%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
46%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
3%
1/X
3%
X/1
19%
X/2
3%
X/X
15%
2/1
10%
2/2
6%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
66%
-3.0pp
26%
Draw
22%
+4.0pp
11%
Away Win
12%
-1.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
55%
-1.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
45%
+1.8pp
52%
BTTS Yes
39%
+13.4pp
48%
BTTS No
61%
-13.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Turan Tovuz EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Kapaz EU Bookmakers 15%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +1%
1.52/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.81/2.32
-22% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -17%
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
395 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Turan Tovuz
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Kapaz
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
5 Corners 6
19.01.2025 Kapaz Kapaz 5-2 HT 2-2 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz AZERS
25.10.2024 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz 2-1 HT 1-0 Kapaz Kapaz AZERS
17.08.2024 Kapaz Kapaz 0-3 HT 0-2 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz AZERS
22.01.2024 Kapaz Kapaz 2-1 HT 1-1 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz AZERS
28.10.2023 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz 4-0 HT 1-0 Kapaz Kapaz AZERS
18.08.2023 Kapaz Kapaz 0-2 HT 0-2 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz AZERS
POST-MATCH Turan Tovuz vs Kapaz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Turan Tovuz cruised past Kapaz 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Turan Tovuz as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Turan Tovuz had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Turan Tovuz and 1.33 for Kapaz.

What was the final score of Turan Tovuz vs Kapaz?

Turan Tovuz 3-0 Kapaz in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Turan Tovuz vs Kapaz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Turan Tovuz win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Turan Tovuz 63%, draw 26%, Kapaz 11%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Turan Tovuz) — while Under 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Turan Tovuz) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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28 Sep 2025
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