Sabah 1-1 Sumqayıt — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 28 Sep 2025

📅28/09/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.57
Draw
22%
3.64
Away
18%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.68
Over 2.5
43%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.13
No
51%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
25%
X/2
7%
X/X
8%
2/1
9%
2/2
7%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
60%
+0.5pp
22%
Draw
24%
-2.0pp
17%
Away Win
16%
+1.5pp
57%
Under 2.5
56%
+0.9pp
43%
Over 2.5
44%
-0.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
43%
+6.3pp
51%
BTTS No
57%
-6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sabah EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Sumqayıt EU Bookmakers 19%
-3% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -6%
1.91/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/1.37
+0% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +16%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
329 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 265 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sabah
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Sumqayıt
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
29.03.2025 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt 3-3 HT 1-1 Sabah Sabah AZERS
27.02.2025 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt 0-4 HT 0-0 Sabah Sabah AZERK
05.02.2025 Sabah Sabah 0-0 HT 0-0 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt AZERK
25.01.2025 Sabah Sabah 0-0 HT 0-0 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt AZERS
03.11.2024 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt 1-0 HT 0-0 Sabah Sabah AZERS
25.08.2024 Sabah Sabah 3-1 HT 1-1 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt AZERS
POST-MATCH Sabah vs Sumqayıt
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sabah and Sumqayıt shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Sabah at 60% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sabah had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Sabah and 0.83 for Sumqayıt.

What was the final score of Sabah vs Sumqayıt?

Sabah 1-1 Sumqayıt in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sabah vs Sumqayıt?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sabah win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Sabah 60%, draw 22%, Sumqayıt 17%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Sabah), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sabah) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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