Altrincham 2-1 Dorking Wanderers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - National League, 5 Mar 2024

📅05/03/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.66
Draw
21%
3.8
Away
24%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.33
Over 2.5
62%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.56
No
42%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
4.92
2-3 Goals
38%
1.94
4-5 Goals
27%
2.78
6+ Goals
15%
7.43
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
2.08
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.3
X/1
16%
4.16
X/2
12%
9.95
X/X
8%
5.99
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
20.7
2/2
7%
6.94
2/X
7%
14.8
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.7 — our 9% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
56%
-0.9pp
21%
Draw
23%
-2.0pp
24%
Away Win
21%
+3.0pp
38%
Under 2.5
39%
-0.9pp
62%
Over 2.5
61%
+0.9pp
58%
BTTS Yes
60%
-2.0pp
42%
BTTS No
40%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Altrincham EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Dorking Wanderers EU Bookmakers 25%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +15%
2.69/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.55
+56% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +2%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
388 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Altrincham
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Dorking Wanderers
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 10
0 Yellow Cards 2
15.04.2023 Dorking Wanderers Dorking Wanderers 3-2 HT 1-2 Altrincham Altrincham İBSL
08.10.2022 Altrincham Altrincham 4-1 HT 1-0 Dorking Wanderers Dorking Wanderers İBSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Altrincham
2-1
AWAY Dorking Wanderers
30% Ball Possession 70%
6 Total Shots 23
5 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 9
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Altrincham vs Dorking Wanderers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Altrincham nicked a narrow win over Dorking Wanderers 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Altrincham as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, Altrincham had 30% of the ball to Dorking Wanderers's 70%, shots finished 6-23.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Altrincham and 2.00 for Dorking Wanderers.

What was the final score of Altrincham vs Dorking Wanderers?

Altrincham 2-1 Dorking Wanderers in the England - National League on 05/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Altrincham vs Dorking Wanderers?

Before kick-off our model rated a Altrincham win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Altrincham 55%, draw 21%, Dorking Wanderers 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Altrincham), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Altrincham) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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