York City 1-3 AFC Fylde — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - National League, 5 Mar 2024

📅05/03/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.05
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
34%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.0
Over 2.5
49%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.61
No
47%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.8
2-3 Goals
39%
1.83
4-5 Goals
24%
3.22
6+ Goals
10%
11.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.91
1/2
7%
32.0
1/X
8%
12.7
X/1
10%
4.88
X/2
12%
6.83
X/X
10%
4.9
2/1
9%
24.45
2/2
15%
4.66
2/X EV+ ✗
12%
13.0
Value flag · 2/X at 13.0 — our 12% vs market 4.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
44%
-8.6pp
30%
Draw
26%
+3.9pp
34%
Away Win
29%
+4.8pp
51%
Under 2.5
46%
+4.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
54%
-4.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.2pp
47%
BTTS No
42%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME York City EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY AFC Fylde EU Bookmakers 33%
-11% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -14%
1.30/1.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.80
-17% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -21%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
398 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME York City
3W-0D-1L
AWAY AFC Fylde
1.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
46% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 1
11.11.2023 AFC Fylde AFC Fylde 0-2 HT 0-2 York City York City İBSL
02.05.2022 York City York City 2-1 HT 1-0 AFC Fylde AFC Fylde İCON
01.03.2022 AFC Fylde AFC Fylde 0-2 HT 0-0 York City York City İCON
16.02.2021 York City York City 1-3 HT 0-1 AFC Fylde AFC Fylde İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME York City
1-3
AWAY AFC Fylde
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 19
6 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 8
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH York City vs AFC Fylde
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AFC Fylde got the better of York City 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 30% / 34% — and on the day AFC Fylde made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, York City had 58% of the ball to AFC Fylde's 42%, shots finished 13-19.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, York City had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.75 goals for York City and 1.00 for AFC Fylde.

What was the final score of York City vs AFC Fylde?

York City 1-3 AFC Fylde in the England - National League on 05/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for York City vs AFC Fylde?

Before kick-off our model rated a York City win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split York City 36%, draw 30%, AFC Fylde 34%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (York City), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (York City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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