Le Mans FC 3-4 Avranches — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - National League 1, 5 Apr 2024

📅05/04/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.49
Draw
23%
4.08
Away
19%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.1
Over 2.5
51%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.81
No
54%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.0
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
23%
3.11
6+ Goals
11%
10.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.0 — our 26% vs market 19.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1.85
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
6%
16.85
X/1
19%
3.7
X/2
5%
12.25
X/X
11%
6.05
2/1
6%
21.85
2/2
11%
9.52
2/X
5%
17.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
63%
-5.2pp
23%
Draw
21%
+1.7pp
19%
Away Win
16%
+3.5pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+5.4pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-5.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.3pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Le Mans FC EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Avranches EU Bookmakers 19%
+18% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -15%
2.42/0.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.70/1.75
+33% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / -9%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
350 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 255 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.5 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Le Mans FC
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Avranches
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
49% Ball Possession 51%
8 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
03.11.2023 Avranches Avranches 2-1 HT 2-1 Le Mans FC Le Mans FC FR3
10.03.2023 Avranches Avranches 4-0 HT 2-0 Le Mans FC Le Mans FC FR3
30.09.2022 Le Mans FC Le Mans FC 3-0 HT 3-0 Avranches Avranches FR3
06.05.2022 Le Mans FC Le Mans FC 1-3 HT 0-0 Avranches Avranches FR3
29.01.2022 Avranches Avranches 0-1 HT 0-1 Le Mans FC Le Mans FC FR3
16.04.2021 Le Mans FC Le Mans FC 1-1 HT 1-0 Avranches Avranches FR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Le Mans FC
3-4
AWAY Avranches
57% Ball Possession 43%
11 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Le Mans FC vs Avranches
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Avranches squeezed past Le Mans FC 4-3 away from home. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Le Mans FC at 58% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Le Mans FC had 57% of the ball to Avranches's 43%, shots finished 11-12.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Avranches led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Le Mans FC and 1.67 for Avranches.

What was the final score of Le Mans FC vs Avranches?

Le Mans FC 3-4 Avranches in the France - National League 1 on 05/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Le Mans FC vs Avranches?

Before kick-off our model rated a Le Mans FC win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Le Mans FC 58%, draw 23%, Avranches 19%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Le Mans FC), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Le Mans FC) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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