Martigues 1-0 Villefranche — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - National League 1, 5 Apr 2024

📅05/04/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.64
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
28%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.68
Over 2.5
43%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.06
No
54%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.72
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
24%
4.3
6+ Goals
7%
21.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
2.2
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
4%
16.5
X/1
10%
3.65
X/2 EV+ ✗
13%
9.69
X/X
13%
4.6
2/1
5%
26.5
2/2
11%
8.39
2/X
7%
17.45
Value flag · X/2 at 9.69 — our 13% vs market 6.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
57%
-9.7pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.3pp
28%
Away Win
18%
+10.0pp
57%
Under 2.5
56%
+1.4pp
43%
Over 2.5
44%
-1.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
44%
+1.0pp
54%
BTTS No
56%
-1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Martigues EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Villefranche EU Bookmakers 21%
+11% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -18%
1.41/0.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.58
-17% / +106% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -6%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
372 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Martigues
1W-2D-0L
AWAY Villefranche
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 2
03.11.2023 Villefranche Villefranche 0-1 HT 0-1 Martigues Martigues FR3
20.02.2023 Martigues Martigues 2-2 HT 2-1 Villefranche Villefranche FR3
09.09.2022 Villefranche Villefranche 1-1 HT 1-0 Martigues Martigues FR3
POST-MATCH Martigues vs Villefranche
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Martigues edged past Villefranche 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Martigues as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Martigues had the better of it with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Martigues and 1.00 for Villefranche.

What was the final score of Martigues vs Villefranche?

Martigues 1-0 Villefranche in the France - National League 1 on 05/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Martigues vs Villefranche?

Before kick-off our model rated a Martigues win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Martigues 47%, draw 25%, Villefranche 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Martigues), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Martigues) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
FR3 More France - National League 1
5 Apr 2024
20:30 Versailles vs Dijon Analysis →
20:30 Red Star FC 93 vs Niort Analysis →
20:30 Le Mans FC vs Avranches Analysis →
20:30 Monts dOr Azergues vs Cholet Analysis →
20:30 Epinal vs Nimes Analysis →
20:30 Orleans vs Marignane GCB Analysis →