Maidenhead United 3-1 Tamworth — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - National League, 5 Apr 2025

📅05/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.94
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
46%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.86
Over 2.5
46%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.73
No
54%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.12
2-3 Goals
40%
1.75
4-5 Goals
19%
3.48
6+ Goals
9%
13.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.12 — our 32% vs market 25.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.8
1/2
7%
26.5
1/X
6%
13.55
X/1
11%
6.71
X/2 EV+ ✗
22%
5.09
X/X
12%
4.65
2/1
5%
33.0
2/2
17%
3.13
2/X
6%
13.0
Value flag · X/2 at 5.09 — our 22% vs market 15.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
30%
-0.8pp
24%
Draw
27%
-2.7pp
46%
Away Win
42%
+3.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
50%
+4.3pp
46%
Over 2.5
50%
-4.3pp
46%
BTTS Yes
54%
-7.7pp
54%
BTTS No
46%
+7.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Maidenhead United EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Tamworth EU Bookmakers 46%
-5% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +28% / +28%
1.10/1.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.96/1.47
-14% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +98% / -17%
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
48 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 62 · 93%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 0.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Maidenhead United
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Tamworth
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
52% Ball Possession 48%
8 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 0
14.09.2024 Tamworth Tamworth 3-1 HT 1-0 Maidenhead United Maidenhead United İBSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Maidenhead United
3-1
AWAY Tamworth
0 Corners 0
2 Passes 0
POST-MATCH Maidenhead United vs Tamworth
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Maidenhead United saw off Tamworth 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Tamworth at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

What was the final score of Maidenhead United vs Tamworth?

Maidenhead United 3-1 Tamworth in the England - National League on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Maidenhead United vs Tamworth?

Before kick-off our model rated an Tamworth win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Maidenhead United 30%, draw 24%, Tamworth 46%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Tamworth) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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