Carlisle United 3-2 Newport County — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 5 Apr 2025

Carlisle United
3-2 HT 1-2
Newport County
📅05/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Carlisle United vs Newport County Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.72
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
28%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.91
Over 2.5
50%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.81
No
50%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.31
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
3.32
6+ Goals
12%
12.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.31 — our 26% vs market 23.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.23
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
9%
14.8
X/1
21%
4.22
X/2
11%
9.37
X/X
11%
5.32
2/1
7%
22.9
2/2
11%
7.51
2/X
7%
16.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
54%
-8.2pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.9pp
28%
Away Win
21%
+6.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.4pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Carlisle United v Newport County — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Carlisle United EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Newport County EU Bookmakers 24%
-2% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +1%
1.31/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/1.47
-22% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / -2%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
317 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 213 · 63%
19.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.6
20.6 Crosses 14.9
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.9

Carlisle United vs Newport County Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Carlisle United
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Newport County
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.13 xG 0.82
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
234 Passes 209
65% Pass Accuracy 62%
20 Box Touches 13
20 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
11.02.2025 Newport County Newport County 1-0 HT 0-0 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2
14.01.2023 Carlisle United Carlisle United 2-0 HT 1-0 Newport County Newport County İN2
24.09.2022 Newport County Newport County 1-1 HT 1-0 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2
15.03.2022 Carlisle United Carlisle United 1-2 HT 0-1 Newport County Newport County İN2
19.10.2021 Newport County Newport County 2-2 HT 2-1 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2
13.04.2021 Newport County Newport County 0-0 HT 0-0 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2

Carlisle United 3-2 Newport County — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Carlisle United
3-2
AWAY Newport County
2.02 xG 0.81
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 9
5 Corners 4
290 Passes 177
73% Pass Accuracy 57%
31 Box Touches 24
23 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Carlisle United vs Newport County
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Carlisle United nicked a narrow win over Newport County 3-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Carlisle United as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Carlisle United had 57% of the ball to Newport County's 43%, shots finished 17-14, expected goals 2.02 to 0.81 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Carlisle United's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Newport County led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Carlisle United and 1.00 for Newport County.

What was the final score of Carlisle United vs Newport County?

Carlisle United 3-2 Newport County in the England - 2nd Division on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Carlisle United vs Newport County?

Before kick-off our model rated a Carlisle United win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Carlisle United 46%, draw 26%, Newport County 28%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Carlisle United) — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Carlisle United)
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