AFC Wimbledon 1-0 Harrogate Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 5 Apr 2025

📅05/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.64
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
23%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.64
Over 2.5
44%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.13
No
55%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.51
2-3 Goals
44%
1.74
4-5 Goals
19%
4.33
6+ Goals
9%
22.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.15
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
12%
16.25
X/1
19%
3.93
X/2
9%
10.6
X/X
8%
4.49
2/1
6%
28.0
2/2
9%
9.64
2/X
8%
18.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
57%
-7.8pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.6pp
23%
Away Win
18%
+5.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
57%
-0.9pp
44%
Over 2.5
43%
+0.9pp
45%
BTTS Yes
43%
+1.7pp
55%
BTTS No
57%
-1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AFC Wimbledon EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Harrogate Town EU Bookmakers 21%
-16% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +1%
1.40/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.45
+1% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +17%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
308 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 218 · 66%
22.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.1
22.3 Crosses 14.5
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AFC Wimbledon
3W-2D-0L
AWAY Harrogate Town
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.01 xG 0.69
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
270 Passes 282
67% Pass Accuracy 68%
26 Box Touches 10
18 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
07.12.2024 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town 0-3 HT 0-2 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN2
29.03.2024 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 1-1 HT 0-1 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town İN2
03.10.2023 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town 0-1 HT 0-1 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN2
07.04.2023 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town 2-2 HT 0-1 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN2
29.10.2022 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 3-2 HT 1-0 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AFC Wimbledon
1-0
AWAY Harrogate Town
1.42 xG 0.38
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
179 Passes 124
58% Pass Accuracy 49%
23 Box Touches 12
29 Crosses 17
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH AFC Wimbledon vs Harrogate Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AFC Wimbledon squeezed past Harrogate Town 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had AFC Wimbledon as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, AFC Wimbledon had 56% of the ball to Harrogate Town's 44%, shots finished 15-8, expected goals 1.42 to 0.38.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, AFC Wimbledon had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for AFC Wimbledon and 1.00 for Harrogate Town.

What was the final score of AFC Wimbledon vs Harrogate Town?

AFC Wimbledon 1-0 Harrogate Town in the England - 2nd Division on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AFC Wimbledon vs Harrogate Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a AFC Wimbledon win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split AFC Wimbledon 49%, draw 28%, Harrogate Town 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AFC Wimbledon), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (AFC Wimbledon) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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