Grimsby Town 3-1 Morecambe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 5 Apr 2025

📅05/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.75
Draw
29%
3.54
Away
24%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.74
Over 2.5
40%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.96
No
56%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.73
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals
18%
3.94
6+ Goals
8%
18.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.73 — our 34% vs market 29.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.32
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
9%
15.55
X/1
19%
4.07
X/2
7%
9.06
X/X
12%
4.76
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
10%
7.76
2/X
8%
17.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
54%
-6.4pp
29%
Draw
25%
+3.3pp
24%
Away Win
21%
+3.1pp
60%
Under 2.5
54%
+6.5pp
40%
Over 2.5
46%
-6.5pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-3.3pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Grimsby Town EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Morecambe EU Bookmakers 24%
-6% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / -5%
1.29/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.49
-33% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / -5%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
339 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 245 · 68%
24.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
20.3 Crosses 16.7
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Grimsby Town
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Morecambe
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.93 xG 1.75
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
254 Passes 196
64% Pass Accuracy 60%
27 Box Touches 21
17 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 2
07.12.2024 Morecambe Morecambe 0-3 HT 0-2 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İN2
24.02.2024 Morecambe Morecambe 1-1 HT 0-1 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İN2
11.11.2023 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 3-2 HT 0-1 Morecambe Morecambe İN2
20.04.2021 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 0-3 HT 0-2 Morecambe Morecambe İN2
26.12.2020 Morecambe Morecambe 3-1 HT 0-1 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İN2
05.09.2020 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 1-1 HT 1-1 Morecambe Morecambe İNLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Grimsby Town
3-1
AWAY Morecambe
2.33 xG 0.26
54% Ball Possession 46%
17 Total Shots 4
9 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 6
238 Passes 163
67% Pass Accuracy 55%
25 Box Touches 11
21 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Grimsby Town vs Morecambe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Grimsby Town beat Morecambe 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Grimsby Town as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Grimsby Town had 54% of the ball to Morecambe's 46%, shots finished 17-4, expected goals 2.33 to 0.26.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Grimsby Town and 1.67 for Morecambe.

What was the final score of Grimsby Town vs Morecambe?

Grimsby Town 3-1 Morecambe in the England - 2nd Division on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Grimsby Town vs Morecambe?

Before kick-off our model rated a Grimsby Town win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Grimsby Town 47%, draw 29%, Morecambe 24%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Grimsby Town) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Grimsby Town) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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