Colchester 1-0 Notts County — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 5 Apr 2025

Colchester
1-0 HT 1-0
Notts County
📅05/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✓
England - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Colchester vs Notts County Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.67
Draw
25%
3.11
Away
39%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5 OUR CALL
56%
1.68
Over 2.5
44%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.82
No
56%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
32%
2.68
2-3 Goals
40%
1.73
4-5 Goals
19%
4.0
6+ Goals
9%
19.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.68 — our 32% vs market 30.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
4.27
1/2
10%
30.5
1/X
6%
13.6
X/1
12%
5.92
X/2
13%
5.4
X/X
11%
4.21
2/1
5%
33.0
2/2
17%
3.7
2/X
7%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Under 2.5 — 56% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
34%
+1.9pp
25%
Draw
29%
-4.3pp
39%
Away Win
37%
+2.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
56%
+0.6pp
44%
Over 2.5
44%
-0.6pp
44%
BTTS Yes
51%
-6.5pp
56%
BTTS No
49%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Colchester v Notts County — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Colchester EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Notts County EU Bookmakers 40%
-1% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +4%
1.27/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.65/1.50
+3% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +31% / -20%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
253 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 71%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
17.9 Crosses 16.9
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.1

Colchester vs Notts County Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Colchester
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Notts County
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.70 xG 2.23
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
234 Passes 542
79% Pass Accuracy 90%
18 Box Touches 34
9 Crosses 38
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
18.02.2025 Notts County Notts County 1-1 HT 1-0 Colchester Colchester İN2
30.09.2023 Colchester Colchester 5-4 HT 3-1 Notts County Notts County İN2
05.01.2019 Colchester Colchester 3-3 HT 2-3 Notts County Notts County İN2
04.08.2018 Notts County Notts County 0-0 HT 0-0 Colchester Colchester İN2
14.04.2018 Colchester Colchester 1-3 HT 1-0 Notts County Notts County İN2
25.11.2017 Notts County Notts County 2-1 HT 0-0 Colchester Colchester İN2

Colchester 1-0 Notts County — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Colchester
1-0
AWAY Notts County
1.08 xG 0.76
29% Ball Possession 71%
3 Total Shots 14
1 Shots on Target 1
1 Corners 7
130 Passes 429
61% Pass Accuracy 82%
11 Box Touches 35
8 Crosses 33
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Colchester vs Notts County
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Colchester squeezed past Notts County 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 25% / 39% — and on the day Colchester made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (56%) came in.

On the day, Colchester had 29% of the ball to Notts County's 71%, shots finished 3-14, expected goals 1.08 to 0.76.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Notts County led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Colchester and 2.17 for Notts County.

What was the final score of Colchester vs Notts County?

Colchester 1-0 Notts County in the England - 2nd Division on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Colchester vs Notts County?

Before kick-off our model rated an Notts County win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Colchester 36%, draw 25%, Notts County 39%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Notts County) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Notts County) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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