Granada 3-1 Almeria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 5 Apr 2025

Granada
3-1 HT 1-0
Almeria
📅05/04/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Spain - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Granada vs Almeria Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.33
Draw
32%
3.18
Away
32%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.82
Over 2.5
45%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.7
No
49%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.16
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.57
6+ Goals
11%
14.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.16 — our 29% vs market 25.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.56
1/2
7%
31.0
1/X
9%
12.8
X/1
10%
5.52
X/2
11%
6.16
X/X
16%
4.52
2/1
9%
27.5
2/2
14%
4.22
2/X
7%
13.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
39%
-2.6pp
32%
Draw
28%
+4.1pp
32%
Away Win
33%
-1.6pp
55%
Under 2.5
51%
+3.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
49%
-3.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
55%
-3.9pp
49%
BTTS No
45%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Granada v Almeria — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Granada EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Almeria EU Bookmakers 37%
+15% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -19%
1.65/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.31
+20% / +68% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / -23%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
357 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 76%
21.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.7
21.9 Crosses 18.8
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.0

Granada vs Almeria Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Granada
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Almeria
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.36 xG 1.46
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
330 Passes 253
79% Pass Accuracy 73%
21 Box Touches 19
18 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
30.11.2024 Almeria Almeria 2-1 HT 0-1 Granada Granada İS2
18.02.2024 Granada Granada 1-1 HT 0-1 Almeria Almeria İS1
01.10.2023 Almeria Almeria 3-3 HT 3-0 Granada Granada İS1
29.07.2019 Granada Granada 1-0 HT 1-0 Almeria Almeria HAZ
17.03.2019 Almeria Almeria 0-0 HT 0-0 Granada Granada İS2
27.10.2018 Granada Granada 1-0 HT 0-0 Almeria Almeria İS2

Granada 3-1 Almeria — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Granada
3-1
AWAY Almeria
2.51 xG 1.15
41% Ball Possession 59%
17 Total Shots 21
8 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 5
228 Passes 366
79% Pass Accuracy 86%
20 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Granada vs Almeria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Granada saw off Almeria 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (36% / 32% / 32%) promised a tight game; Granada found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Granada had 41% of the ball to Almeria's 59%, shots finished 17-21, expected goals 2.51 to 1.15.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Granada had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Granada and 1.00 for Almeria.

What was the final score of Granada vs Almeria?

Granada 3-1 Almeria in the Spain - 2nd Division on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Granada vs Almeria?

Before kick-off our model rated a Granada win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Granada 36%, draw 32%, Almeria 32%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Granada), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Granada) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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