Sestao River 3-2 Gimnastic Tarragona — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division B, 5 Apr 2025

📅05/04/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.19
Draw
31%
2.94
Away
31%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5 OUR CALL
62%
1.48
Over 2.5
38%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.09
No
58%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2.15
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
16%
5.32
6+ Goals
7%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
14%
X/2
13%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
12%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 62%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
42%
-4.1pp
31%
Draw
30%
+0.9pp
31%
Away Win
28%
+3.2pp
62%
Under 2.5
64%
-1.7pp
38%
Over 2.5
36%
+1.7pp
42%
BTTS Yes
44%
-1.8pp
58%
BTTS No
56%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sestao River EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Gimnastic Tarragona EU Bookmakers 32%
-2% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +6%
1.15/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/0.99
-9% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +16%
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
276 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses 12.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sestao River
0W-3D-1L
AWAY Gimnastic Tarragona
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
45% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 1
01.09.2024 Gimnastic Tarragona Gimnastic Tarragona 1-1 HT 0-0 Sestao River Sestao River İS3
18.02.2024 Sestao River Sestao River 1-1 HT 0-0 Gimnastic Tarragona Gimnastic Tarragona İS3
12.11.2023 Gimnastic Tarragona Gimnastic Tarragona 0-0 HT 0-0 Sestao River Sestao River İS3
07.06.2014 Sestao River Sestao River 1-2 HT 1-0 Gimnastic Tarragona Gimnastic Tarragona İS3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sestao River
3-2
AWAY Gimnastic Tarragona
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sestao River vs Gimnastic Tarragona
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sestao River nicked a narrow win over Gimnastic Tarragona 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (37% / 31% / 31%) promised a tight game; Sestao River found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sestao River had 45% of the ball to Gimnastic Tarragona's 55%, shots finished 12-12.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Gimnastic Tarragona led the recent series with 1 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Sestao River and 1.00 for Gimnastic Tarragona.

What was the final score of Sestao River vs Gimnastic Tarragona?

Sestao River 3-2 Gimnastic Tarragona in the Spain - 2nd Division B on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sestao River vs Gimnastic Tarragona?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sestao River win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Sestao River 37%, draw 31%, Gimnastic Tarragona 31%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sestao River) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sestao River) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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