Brescia 1-2 Mantova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 5 Apr 2025

📅05/04/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.09
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
29%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5 OUR CALL
58%
1.91
Over 2.5
42%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.66
No
50%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.44
2-3 Goals
41%
1.8
4-5 Goals
20%
3.34
6+ Goals
9%
12.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.44 — our 30% vs market 23.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.0
1/2
6%
33.5
1/X
12%
12.15
X/1
13%
5.21
X/2
13%
7.24
X/X
10%
4.63
2/1
9%
25.5
2/2
10%
5.05
2/X
8%
12.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
44%
-2.3pp
30%
Draw
28%
+1.8pp
29%
Away Win
28%
+0.5pp
58%
Under 2.5
48%
+9.3pp
42%
Over 2.5
52%
-9.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.6pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brescia EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Mantova EU Bookmakers 32%
-2% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -16%
1.27/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.21
-17% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -6%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
328 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 75%
24.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.7
23.6 Crosses 15.6
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brescia
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Mantova
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.68 xG 2.03
29% Ball Possession 71%
10 Total Shots 21
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
177 Passes 525
78% Pass Accuracy 92%
13 Box Touches 30
12 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.10.2024 Mantova Mantova 1-1 HT 0-0 Brescia Brescia İTB
02.04.2010 Brescia Brescia 1-0 HT 1-0 Mantova Mantova İTB
02.11.2009 Mantova Mantova 2-2 HT 1-1 Brescia Brescia İTB
25.04.2009 Brescia Brescia 0-0 HT 0-0 Mantova Mantova İTB
29.11.2008 Mantova Mantova 0-2 HT 0-0 Brescia Brescia İTB
15.03.2008 Mantova Mantova 1-1 HT 1-1 Brescia Brescia İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brescia
1-2
AWAY Mantova
1.10 xG 1.87
34% Ball Possession 66%
14 Total Shots 18
6 Shots on Target 8
1 Corners 3
233 Passes 517
80% Pass Accuracy 89%
25 Box Touches 25
18 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Brescia vs Mantova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mantova nicked a narrow win over Brescia 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Brescia at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Brescia had 34% of the ball to Mantova's 66%, shots finished 14-18, expected goals 1.10 to 1.87.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Brescia had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Brescia and 0.67 for Mantova.

What was the final score of Brescia vs Mantova?

Brescia 1-2 Mantova in the Italy - Serie B on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brescia vs Mantova?

Before kick-off our model rated a Brescia win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Brescia 42%, draw 30%, Mantova 29%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Brescia) ✗ Under 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İTB More Italy - Serie B
5 Apr 2025
16:00 Frosinone vs Cosenza Calcio Analysis →
16:00 Cittadella vs Carrarese Analysis →
16:00 Südtirol vs Cesena Analysis →
18:15 Pisa vs Modena Analysis →
20:30 Juve Stabia vs Salernitana Analysis →