Köln 0-1 Hertha Berlin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 5 Apr 2025

📅05/04/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.05
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
32%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.15
Over 2.5
53%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.56
No
51%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.11
2-3 Goals
38%
1.87
4-5 Goals
27%
2.97
6+ Goals
10%
9.06
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.9
1/2
6%
30.0
1/X
7%
12.7
X/1
19%
5.17
X/2
11%
7.11
X/X
7%
5.37
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
22.9
2/2
15%
4.74
2/X
9%
13.25
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.9 — our 7% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
45%
+0.1pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.1pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+2.0pp
47%
Under 2.5
43%
+3.8pp
53%
Over 2.5
57%
-3.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
60%
-11.1pp
51%
BTTS No
40%
+11.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Köln EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Hertha Berlin EU Bookmakers 33%
-4% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +7%
2.11/1.45 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.56/1.58
-24% / +38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / -19%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
352 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 78%
36.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.8
26.0 Crosses 19.1
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Köln
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Hertha Berlin
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
2.07 xG 1.27
56% Ball Possession 44%
18 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 7
399 Passes 291
81% Pass Accuracy 75%
33 Box Touches 19
28 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 4
04.12.2024 Köln Köln 2-1 HT 1-1 Hertha Berlin Hertha Berlin AFK
02.11.2024 Hertha Berlin Hertha Berlin 0-1 HT 0-1 Köln Köln AL2
12.05.2023 Köln Köln 5-2 HT 3-2 Hertha Berlin Hertha Berlin AL1
12.11.2022 Hertha Berlin Hertha Berlin 2-0 HT 1-0 Köln Köln AL1
09.01.2022 Hertha Berlin Hertha Berlin 1-3 HT 0-2 Köln Köln AL1
15.08.2021 Köln Köln 3-1 HT 1-1 Hertha Berlin Hertha Berlin AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Köln
0-1
AWAY Hertha Berlin
0.96 xG 1.78
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 5
481 Passes 308
86% Pass Accuracy 84%
36 Box Touches 26
29 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Köln vs Hertha Berlin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hertha Berlin edged past Köln 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Köln at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Köln had 60% of the ball to Hertha Berlin's 40%, shots finished 15-18, expected goals 0.96 to 1.78.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Köln had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Köln and 1.17 for Hertha Berlin.

What was the final score of Köln vs Hertha Berlin?

Köln 0-1 Hertha Berlin in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Köln vs Hertha Berlin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Köln win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Köln 45%, draw 24%, Hertha Berlin 32%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Köln), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Köln) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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