Nürnberg 0-3 Hamburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 5 Apr 2025

Nürnberg
0-3 HT 0-2
Hamburg
📅05/04/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Germany - 2. Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Nürnberg vs Hamburg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.46
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
40%
1.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.33
Over 2.5
52%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.53
No
44%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.76
2-3 Goals
38%
1.94
4-5 Goals
26%
2.75
6+ Goals
13%
7.27
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
5.85
1/2
9%
20.65
1/X
5%
14.0
X/1
15%
8.59
X/2
12%
4.8
X/X
13%
5.95
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
34.0
2/2
19%
2.39
2/X
9%
13.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 34.0 — our 9% vs market 1.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
25%
+7.1pp
27%
Draw
24%
+3.2pp
40%
Away Win
50%
-10.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
39%
+8.9pp
52%
Over 2.5
61%
-8.9pp
56%
BTTS Yes
61%
-5.6pp
44%
BTTS No
39%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Nürnberg v Hamburg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nürnberg EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Hamburg EU Bookmakers 55%
-5% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -16%
1.20/1.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.88/1.37
-22% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -23%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
277 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 354 · 81%
19.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.3
19.5 Crosses 23.0
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.3

Nürnberg vs Hamburg Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nürnberg
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Hamburg
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.40 xG 1.77
43% Ball Possession 57%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
315 Passes 448
80% Pass Accuracy 86%
21 Box Touches 23
17 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
03.11.2024 Hamburg Hamburg 1-1 HT 1-0 Nürnberg Nürnberg AL2
19.05.2024 Hamburg Hamburg 4-1 HT 3-1 Nürnberg Nürnberg AL2
16.12.2023 Nürnberg Nürnberg 0-2 HT 0-0 Hamburg Hamburg AL2
04.03.2023 Hamburg Hamburg 3-0 HT 1-0 Nürnberg Nürnberg AL2
27.08.2022 Nürnberg Nürnberg 0-2 HT 0-1 Hamburg Hamburg AL2
05.03.2022 Nürnberg Nürnberg 2-1 HT 1-1 Hamburg Hamburg AL2

Nürnberg 0-3 Hamburg — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nürnberg
0-3
AWAY Hamburg
0.64 xG 2.78
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 24
3 Shots on Target 8
7 Corners 7
337 Passes 531
86% Pass Accuracy 90%
18 Box Touches 43
12 Crosses 24
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Nürnberg vs Hamburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hamburg ran out comfortable winners over Nürnberg 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

We called this one close before kick-off — 32% / 27% / 40% — and on the day Hamburg made the difference. The goals read — both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Nürnberg had 40% of the ball to Hamburg's 60%, shots finished 9-24, expected goals 0.64 to 2.78.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hamburg led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Nürnberg and 2.17 for Hamburg.

What was the final score of Nürnberg vs Hamburg?

Nürnberg 0-3 Hamburg in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nürnberg vs Hamburg?

Before kick-off our model rated an Hamburg win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Nürnberg 32%, draw 27%, Hamburg 40%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hamburg), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Hamburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AL2 More Germany - 2. Bundesliga
5 Apr 2025
14:00 Darmstadt 98 vs Greuther Fürth Analysis →
14:00 Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Preussen Münster Analysis →
21:30 Köln vs Hertha Berlin Analysis →