Melgar 4-0 ADT — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 5 Apr 2025

Melgar
4-0 HT 2-0
ADT
📅05/04/2025 · 🕒23:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.49
Draw
23%
3.94
Away
24%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.1
Over 2.5
52%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.81
No
52%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
8%
X/X
10%
2/1
9%
2/2
9%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
62%
-9.4pp
23%
Draw
22%
+1.0pp
24%
Away Win
16%
+8.3pp
48%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.7pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Melgar EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY ADT EU Bookmakers 19%
-2% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +6%
1.64/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.18
-5% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +19%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
330 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 76%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.3
20.8 Crosses 15.3
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Melgar
3W-3D-0L
AWAY ADT
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.44 xG 0.55
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 5
288 Passes 207
78% Pass Accuracy 73%
25 Box Touches 12
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.08.2024 ADT ADT 1-1 HT 1-1 Melgar Melgar PER
09.03.2024 Melgar Melgar 3-1 HT 1-0 ADT ADT PER
23.06.2023 Melgar Melgar 4-0 HT 2-0 ADT ADT PER
26.03.2023 ADT ADT 0-0 HT 0-0 Melgar Melgar PER
05.10.2022 ADT ADT 1-1 HT 1-0 Melgar Melgar PER
13.05.2022 Melgar Melgar 3-0 HT 2-0 ADT ADT PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Melgar
4-0
AWAY ADT
3.26 xG 0.39
58% Ball Possession 42%
20 Total Shots 7
10 Shots on Target 0
4 Corners 2
409 Passes 280
89% Pass Accuracy 84%
28 Box Touches 8
13 Crosses 10
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Melgar vs ADT
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melgar swept aside ADT 4-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Melgar as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Melgar had 58% of the ball to ADT's 42%, shots finished 20-7, expected goals 3.26 to 0.39.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melgar had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Melgar and 0.50 for ADT.

What was the final score of Melgar vs ADT?

Melgar 4-0 ADT in the Peru - Premier League on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Melgar vs ADT?

Before kick-off our model rated a Melgar win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Melgar 53%, draw 23%, ADT 24%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melgar), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Melgar) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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