Sporting JAX vs Tampa Bay Rowdies Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Sporting JAX v Tampa Bay Rowdies — Team-Based Signals
Sporting JAX 0-1 Tampa Bay Rowdies — Actual Match Statistics
Tampa Bay Rowdies edged past Sporting JAX 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Tampa Bay Rowdies as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.
On the day, Sporting JAX had 30% of the ball to Tampa Bay Rowdies's 70%, shots finished 8-17, expected goals 1.14 to 2.37 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Tampa Bay Rowdies's control.
What was the final score of Sporting JAX vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
Sporting JAX 0-1 Tampa Bay Rowdies in the USL Championship on 05/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Sporting JAX vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
Before kick-off our model rated an Tampa Bay Rowdies win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Sporting JAX 17%, draw 22%, Tampa Bay Rowdies 60%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tampa Bay Rowdies), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.