Sporting JAX vs Tampa Bay Rowdies Prediction — Model Probabilities
Sporting JAX v Tampa Bay Rowdies — Team-Based Signals
Sporting JAX 0-1 Tampa Bay Rowdies — Actual Match Statistics
Tampa Bay Rowdies found just enough to beat Sporting JAX 1-0 away from home. Level at 0-0 at half-time, the winner was decided in the second half.
As we said in the preview, our model had Tampa Bay Rowdies as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
No strong lean on goals — the model had over 2.5 at 53% and both teams to score at 53%, coin-flips both.
Under the surface, Sporting JAX had 30% of the ball to Tampa Bay Rowdies's 70%, shots finished 8-17, expected goals 1.14 to 2.37 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Tampa Bay Rowdies's control.
Sporting JAX vs Tampa Bay Rowdies Result & Final Score
Sporting JAX 0 - 1 Tampa Bay Rowdies in the USL Championship on 05/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Sporting JAX vs Tampa Bay Rowdies Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated an Tampa Bay Rowdies win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Sporting JAX 17%, draw 23%, Tampa Bay Rowdies 60%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tampa Bay Rowdies) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.