Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising Prediction — Model Probabilities
Sacramento Republic v Phoenix Rising — Team-Based Signals
Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Sacramento Republic 2-0 Phoenix Rising — Actual Match Statistics
Sacramento Republic took care of Phoenix Rising 2-0.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Sacramento Republic as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.
The goals picture was genuinely open: 49% for over 2.5, 50% on both teams scoring.
By the numbers, Phoenix Rising saw more of the ball, 62% to 38%, shots finished 11-13, expected goals 1.01 to 1.67 — by the quality of chances, Phoenix Rising deserved more.
The head-to-head backdrop: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Phoenix Rising led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.50 a game for Sacramento Republic against 1.50 for Phoenix Rising.
Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising Result & Final Score
Sacramento Republic 2 - 0 Phoenix Rising in the USL Championship on 05/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Sacramento Republic win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Sacramento Republic 55%, draw 25%, Phoenix Rising 20%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sacramento Republic), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.