Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Sacramento Republic v Phoenix Rising — Team-Based Signals
Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-2
HT 1-0
Phoenix Rising
USLP
2-1
HT 0-0
Sacramento Republic
USLP
Sacramento Republic 2-0 Phoenix Rising — Actual Match Statistics
Sacramento Republic beat Phoenix Rising 2-0.
As we said in the preview, our model had Sacramento Republic as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.
On the day, Sacramento Republic had 38% of the ball to Phoenix Rising's 62%, shots finished 11-13, expected goals 1.01 to 1.67 — on chances, Phoenix Rising could feel hard done by.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Phoenix Rising led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Sacramento Republic and 1.50 for Phoenix Rising.
What was the final score of Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising?
Sacramento Republic 2-0 Phoenix Rising in the USL Championship on 05/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising?
Before kick-off our model rated a Sacramento Republic win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Sacramento Republic 52%, draw 23%, Phoenix Rising 25%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sacramento Republic) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.