Sacramento Republic 2-0 Phoenix Rising — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 15 Sep 2024

📅15/09/2024 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
30%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.67
Over 2.5
41%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.03
No
57%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.63
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
16%
4.45
6+ Goals
9%
23.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.63 — our 35% vs market 31.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
8%
1/X
5%
X/1
27%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
9%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
53%
-8.5pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.1pp
30%
Away Win
21%
+8.6pp
59%
Under 2.5
56%
+2.9pp
41%
Over 2.5
44%
-2.9pp
43%
BTTS Yes
45%
-2.1pp
57%
BTTS No
55%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sacramento Republic EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Phoenix Rising EU Bookmakers 25%
-8% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +2%
1.46/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.60
-28% / +37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -10%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
396 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 76%
23.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.8
23.0 Crosses 16.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sacramento Republic
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Phoenix Rising
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.86 xG 1.27
42% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
286 Passes 430
78% Pass Accuracy 86%
13 Box Touches 16
14 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 4
05.05.2024 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising 1-1 HT 0-1 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic USLP
05.11.2023 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic 1-2 HT 1-0 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
31.08.2023 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising 2-1 HT 0-0 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic USLP
27.07.2023 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic 4-0 HT 4-0 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
29.09.2022 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic 0-1 HT 0-1 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
24.07.2022 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising 0-0 HT 0-0 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sacramento Republic
2-0
AWAY Phoenix Rising
1.06 xG 0.89
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 6
254 Passes 346
79% Pass Accuracy 83%
21 Box Touches 27
23 Crosses 23
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sacramento Republic got the better of Phoenix Rising 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Sacramento Republic as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Sacramento Republic had 44% of the ball to Phoenix Rising's 56%, shots finished 12-12, expected goals 1.06 to 0.89.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Phoenix Rising led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Sacramento Republic and 1.00 for Phoenix Rising.

What was the final score of Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising?

Sacramento Republic 2-0 Phoenix Rising in the USL Championship on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sacramento Republic win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Sacramento Republic 44%, draw 26%, Phoenix Rising 30%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sacramento Republic), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sacramento Republic) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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