Indy Eleven 3-1 El Paso Locomotive — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 15 Sep 2024

📅15/09/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.75
Draw
28%
3.64
Away
29%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.8
Over 2.5
43%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.9
No
55%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.05
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.82
6+ Goals
10%
16.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.05 — our 31% vs market 27.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
10%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
54%
-10.9pp
28%
Draw
24%
+3.9pp
29%
Away Win
22%
+7.0pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+5.4pp
43%
Over 2.5
48%
-5.4pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.3pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Indy Eleven EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY El Paso Locomotive EU Bookmakers 25%
-10% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +9%
1.56/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.54
-24% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -9%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
370 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 275 · 75%
24.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
21.0 Crosses 12.1
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Indy Eleven
1W-0D-1L
AWAY El Paso Locomotive
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.29 xG 1.03
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
418 Passes 395
87% Pass Accuracy 83%
14 Box Touches 18
14 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
20.08.2023 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive 2-3 HT 1-0 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven USLP
10.06.2021 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive 2-0 HT 1-0 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Indy Eleven
3-1
AWAY El Paso Locomotive
4.12 xG 0.73
37% Ball Possession 63%
19 Total Shots 12
9 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 2
284 Passes 526
81% Pass Accuracy 87%
26 Box Touches 17
11 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Indy Eleven vs El Paso Locomotive
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Indy Eleven got the better of El Paso Locomotive 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Indy Eleven as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Indy Eleven had 37% of the ball to El Paso Locomotive's 63%, shots finished 19-12, expected goals 4.12 to 0.73.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Indy Eleven and 2.00 for El Paso Locomotive.

What was the final score of Indy Eleven vs El Paso Locomotive?

Indy Eleven 3-1 El Paso Locomotive in the USL Championship on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Indy Eleven vs El Paso Locomotive?

Before kick-off our model rated a Indy Eleven win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Indy Eleven 43%, draw 28%, El Paso Locomotive 29%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Indy Eleven) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Indy Eleven) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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