Loudoun United 4-2 Birmingham Legion — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 15 Sep 2024

📅15/09/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.0
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
33%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.95
Over 2.5
45%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.68
No
51%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.51
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals
22%
3.4
6+ Goals
10%
12.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.51 — our 28% vs market 23.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
11%
X/2
11%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
46%
-5.2pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.9pp
33%
Away Win
28%
+4.3pp
55%
Under 2.5
48%
+7.0pp
45%
Over 2.5
52%
-7.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.2pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Loudoun United EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Birmingham Legion EU Bookmakers 32%
-13% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / -1%
1.45/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.38
-15% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +0%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
371 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 321 · 78%
23.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.5
16.5 Crosses 14.9
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Loudoun United
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Birmingham Legion
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.12 xG 1.88
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
376 Passes 338
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
23 Box Touches 30
17 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
08.04.2024 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion 3-1 HT 0-0 Loudoun United Loudoun United USLP
22.06.2023 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion 2-0 HT 1-0 Loudoun United Loudoun United USLP
16.04.2023 Loudoun United Loudoun United 3-0 HT 2-0 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion USLP
28.07.2022 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion 6-1 HT 3-0 Loudoun United Loudoun United USLP
24.04.2022 Loudoun United Loudoun United 1-2 HT 0-0 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion USLP
29.08.2019 Loudoun United Loudoun United 1-1 HT 0-1 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Loudoun United
4-2
AWAY Birmingham Legion
2.52 xG 0.40
61% Ball Possession 39%
19 Total Shots 7
9 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 1
577 Passes 335
89% Pass Accuracy 80%
43 Box Touches 15
21 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Loudoun United vs Birmingham Legion
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Loudoun United got the better of Birmingham Legion 4-2. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Loudoun United as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Loudoun United had 61% of the ball to Birmingham Legion's 39%, shots finished 19-7, expected goals 2.52 to 0.40.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Birmingham Legion led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Loudoun United and 2.33 for Birmingham Legion.

What was the final score of Loudoun United vs Birmingham Legion?

Loudoun United 4-2 Birmingham Legion in the USL Championship on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Loudoun United vs Birmingham Legion?

Before kick-off our model rated a Loudoun United win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Loudoun United 41%, draw 26%, Birmingham Legion 33%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Loudoun United) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Loudoun United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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