Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Sacramento Republic v Phoenix Rising — Team-Based Signals
Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-2
HT 1-0
Phoenix Rising
USLP
2-1
HT 0-0
Sacramento Republic
USLP
4-0
HT 4-0
Phoenix Rising
USLP
Sacramento Republic 2-2 Phoenix Rising — Actual Match Statistics
Sacramento Republic and Phoenix Rising couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
Our pre-match lean was Sacramento Republic at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.
On the day, Sacramento Republic had 38% of the ball to Phoenix Rising's 62%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 1.34 to 1.64.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Sacramento Republic and 1.17 for Phoenix Rising.
What was the final score of Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising?
Sacramento Republic 2-2 Phoenix Rising in the USL Championship on 14/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising?
Before kick-off our model rated a Sacramento Republic win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Sacramento Republic 52%, draw 26%, Phoenix Rising 21%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.