Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising Prediction — Model Probabilities
Sacramento Republic v Phoenix Rising — Team-Based Signals
Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Sacramento Republic 2-2 Phoenix Rising — Actual Match Statistics
Sacramento Republic and Phoenix Rising shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
This one beat our numbers. Sacramento Republic carried 58% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.
Neither goals market gave much away — over 2.5 sat at 48% and both teams to score at 50%.
Under the surface, Sacramento Republic had 38% of the ball to Phoenix Rising's 62%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 1.34 to 1.64.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Sacramento Republic and 1.17 for Phoenix Rising.
Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising Result & Final Score
Sacramento Republic 2 - 2 Phoenix Rising in the USL Championship on 14/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Sacramento Republic win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Sacramento Republic 58%, draw 24%, Phoenix Rising 18%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.