El Paso Locomotive 3-2 Las Vegas Lights — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 5 Apr 2026

📅05/04/2026 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.9
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
30%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.9
Over 2.5
51%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.73
No
48%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
16%
X/2
10%
X/X
8%
2/1
10%
2/2
12%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
49%
-3.6pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.7pp
30%
Away Win
26%
+4.3pp
49%
Under 2.5
49%
+0.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
51%
-0.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
54%
-1.4pp
48%
BTTS No
46%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME El Paso Locomotive EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Las Vegas Lights EU Bookmakers 29%
-6% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +12%
1.29/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.45
-8% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -4%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
341 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 80%
20.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.3
16.6 Crosses 13.9
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME El Paso Locomotive
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Las Vegas Lights
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.42 xG 0.88
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
345 Passes 316
81% Pass Accuracy 81%
23 Box Touches 18
14 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 3
03.08.2025 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive 6-0 HT 2-0 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights USLP
25.05.2025 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights 1-2 HT 1-1 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive USLP
13.07.2024 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive 0-2 HT 0-0 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights USLP
24.03.2024 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights 1-0 HT 1-0 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive USLP
14.09.2023 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights 0-1 HT 0-1 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive USLP
15.06.2023 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive 2-1 HT 2-1 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME El Paso Locomotive
3-2
AWAY Las Vegas Lights
1.54 xG 1.08
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 8
297 Passes 436
75% Pass Accuracy 83%
16 Box Touches 16
8 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH El Paso Locomotive vs Las Vegas Lights
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

El Paso Locomotive edged past Las Vegas Lights 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had El Paso Locomotive as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, El Paso Locomotive had 43% of the ball to Las Vegas Lights's 57%, shots finished 9-8, expected goals 1.54 to 1.08.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, El Paso Locomotive had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for El Paso Locomotive and 0.83 for Las Vegas Lights.

What was the final score of El Paso Locomotive vs Las Vegas Lights?

El Paso Locomotive 3-2 Las Vegas Lights in the USL Championship on 05/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for El Paso Locomotive vs Las Vegas Lights?

Before kick-off our model rated a El Paso Locomotive win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split El Paso Locomotive 45%, draw 25%, Las Vegas Lights 30%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (El Paso Locomotive), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (El Paso Locomotive) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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